Dubai: The timing was "surprising," but the operation that took the life of Emad Mughnieh, described as Hezbollah's military mastermind, was "well thought of".
Mughnieh, who was in his forties, was killed in a car bombing in Damascus on Tuesday evening.
He was wanted by Israel and listed on America's FBI wanted list, with a bounty on his head, like Osama Bin Laden, US enemy number 1, for his suspected role in attacks against US and Israeli targets in the '80s and '90s.
Mughnieh had been a fugitive for many years, and the general public knew very little about him. His killing was not expected, noted a Lebanese journalist privately.
An AP report said Hezbollah's announcement of his assassination on Wednesday was the "first mention of him in years - and its mention of a role in the 2006 war was the first time it has suggested he was still active in the organisation."
According to US intelligence officials, Mughnieh was believed to have moved between Lebanon, Syria and Iran in disguise. One press report said it is believed he undergone plastic surgery to avoid detection.
Mughnieh's last public appearance was believed to be at the funeral of his brother Fuad, who was killed in 1994 in a Beirut bomb, the report added.
"The man has been targeted for some 25 years," by the Israelis and Americans, said Syrian political science professor Marwan Kabalan.
"The issue was seizing the right time [for his killing]. The timing was surprising, but the operation had been planned for long before," added the analyst from the Strategic Studies Centre at Damascus University.
"It was well thought of," said veteran Syrian analyst Thabet Salem in an interview with Gulf News. Under the current circumstances, it was not a coincidence, he added, referring to the increasing tension in the region and the attempts to create problems in Lebanon, which is already witnessing a major political crisis over the presidency post.
"Both Syria and Hezbollah were targeted in the slaying," added Salem.
"It was an attempt to achieve a moral achievement in front of Israeli public opinion after the Winograd Committee's report," said Lebanese analyst Galeb Qandeel, in reference to the report on the Israeli government's and army's handling of the 2006 war on Lebanon.
It criticised both sides for "serious failings and flaws," but the the report stopped short of blaming Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert personally for the shortcomings.
Hezbollah has blamed Israel for Mughnieh's killing. The Israeli government denies any involvement.
Kabalan ridiculed the Israeli denial, asking when "Israel claimed responsibility for any assassination [immediately]? It usually does after many years." Meanwhile, some analysts believe it will be difficult to find a clear explanation for the event because of the complexity of the situation.
"I believe there are three scenarios," said Hazem Saghieh, Lebanese columnist for Al Hayat newspaper.
"The first is that it was an American, and maybe an Israeli operation, as Mughnieh was on the terrorist list. This is the easy interpretation".
"The second one says it was a prelude to a Syrian-American deal, while the third says Hezbollah was behind it because it wanted to relieve some of the burden [Mughnieh] on the group as a terrorist organisation" in the eyes of the West.
Saghieh believes "something will be leaked soon to the Israeli and American media... and we will realise what happened".
Others totally disagreed.
"I totally exclude the scenario of the group being behind the assassination. It is impossible for the group to kill the one who was pulling its security and military strings. As for a possible Syrian role, it is almost impossible for somebody to embarrass itself in such a way," Kabalan added.
The killing was an embarrassment for Syria. It revealed he was present in the country, revealing serious security gaps in Syria.
However, analysts find it difficult to predict the immediate implications of the assassination.
"When, where and how Hezbollah will retaliate is up to the resistance strategies and not to the Israeli ones," added Qandeel.
One thing analysts agree on is that it won't have any implication on either the strong alliance between Hezbollah and Syria on one hand, or the internal political crisis in Lebanon.
Looking back: He is linked to deadly events
- Mughnieh was the head of the security apparatus for Hezbollah and was on the FBI list of "most wanted terrorists". Washington had placed a reward of $5 million (about Dh18.25 million) for his capture or conviction.
- Islamic Jihad, a shadowy pro-Iranian group widely believed linked to Hezbollah, kidnapped dozens of Western hostages, including Americans, in Beirut in the mid 1980s at a time when Mughnieh was thought to be the group's commander.
- The group killed some of its captives and exchanged others for US weapons to Iran in what was later known as the Iran-Contra scandal. Among the victims of Islamic Jihad was the CIA's Middle East station chief.
- Islamic Jihad fighters linked to Hezbollah were blamed for a 1983 attack on a US Marine barracks in Beirut that killed 241 people, the bombing of its embassy the same year, in which 63 people were killed and an attack on a French base which killed 58 French paratroopers.
- Mughnieh was also indicted for his role in planning and participating in the June 14, 1985, hijacking of a US plane.
- Four Hezbollah operatives hijacked a TWA flight, travelling between Athens and Rome, to Beirut, beginning a 17-day ordeal in which the plane made two trips to Algeria. They killed US Navy diver Robert Dean Stethem in Beirut.
- Mughnieh was also indicted for the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people, and was the subject of an arrest warrant for the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy there, in which 29 people died.
- In October 2001, the FBI put Mughnieh and two fellow Lebanese Shiites, Hassan Izz Al Deen and Ali Atwi on a list of 22 people wanted for "terrorist" acts.
- Mughnieh's inclusion marked his re-emergence as a prominent US "public enemy"..
- Reuters
- http://www.globalsecurity.org/
- www.fbi.gov/wanted/terrorists
