Region | Iran
US confident Israel is not rushing to attack Tehran
A unilateral Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is not as eminent as it appears, the decision to strike "has not been taken," a top US official, who visited the region recently, told Gulf officials.
- By Mohammed Almezel, Deputy Managing Editor
- Published: 23:52 May 10, 2009
Dubai: A unilateral Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is not as eminent as it appears, the decision to strike "has not been taken," a top US official, who visited the region recently, told Gulf officials.
Israeli talk of a strike is just "rhetoric responding to similar rhetoric coming out of Iran", a Gulf official quoted Dennis Ross, US President Barack Obama's special advisor on the Gulf and South West Asia, as saying when he toured the region late last month.
The Gulf official spoke a few days after meeting Ross, who visited Egypt and Gulf states.
According to a statement from the US State Department, the visit was to discuss "issues of mutual and regional concern [and]& further advance the US commitment to renewed diplomacy in the region and ongoing consultations with partners".
But the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the talks centred on Iran's controversial nuclear programme and the Obama plan to engage Tehran diplomatically.
"The Israelis are pragmatists," Ross was quoted as saying. They appear all set to strike Iran's nuclear facilities but the decision has not been taken, the Gulf official added.
"According to Ross, Israel will not move unless they are convinced Iran poses a clear and present danger to its national security and will not do that without seeking the US approval," he said.
He said all parties believe there will be no real movement before the Iranian presidential elections, set for June 12. All indications point to a victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in his re-election bid "but with a weaker mandate".
"The Americans think a weaker Ahmadinejad might be less inclined to steer foreign policy towards confrontation with the West," he added.
According to intelligence reports leaked to the media in Israel, the US "has set October as its target" for completing the first round of talks with Iran on its nuclear programme. The report said Israeli officials "have given Washington until the end of 2009" to reach a deal that halts Iran's programme. Otherwise, "Israel will act alone", the report said.
Another factor delaying any possible Israeli attack on Iran is the difficulty of attacking targets at least 2,900 kilometres away, a US strategist said.
"All options are on the table but a number of factors have to be taken into account [before deciding on such a dangerous move]," said Mohammad Al Naqbi, Director of the Abu-Dhabi-based Gulf Negotiation Centre.
"The current international conditions are not in favour of such a strike, which would sabotage President Obama's plans to engage Iran and improve the US image in the region," he explained.
The Americans still hope that the European Union can convince Iran to end the standoff peacefully, he said.
Furthermore, it will take Israel time to assemble a force to attack facilities in Bushehr, Arak and Asfahan.
"It is not an easy task. Also, the impact of such an attack on the region - environmentally, politically and militarily - have to be considered," Al Naqbi said.
An attack on the nuclear reactor in Bushehr, close to the Gulf coast, would be an "environmental catastrophe" for the eastern shore of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
Also, Iran would be inclined to attack American positions in the Gulf if its leaders assumed the US was supporting an Israeli strike.
"The regional consequences are very dangerous," the Gulf official said. He added that Ross understood that an Israeli attack on Iran was likely to plunge the region, and perhaps other countries, into a conflict.
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