Tunis: The rise of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood has buoyed Islamists around the region, but the military’s bid to curb their power has also exposed the fragility of the gains Islamists have made since the Arab Spring.
Banned for decades until Hosni Mubarak’s ouster in the face of popular protest last year, the Brotherhood claimed victory on Monday for its presidential candidate Mohammad Mursi in a run-off against his military rival Ahmad Shafiq.
But a sweeping legal manoeuvre by Cairo’s military rulers made clear the generals planned to keep control for now, even if Shafiq’s counter-claim that he had won the poll proved justified.
Since emerging from the shadows, the Brotherhood has shown it can draw votes, but remains stuck in a high-stakes game for Egypt’s future against an opponent with the power and the will to change the rules when deemed necessary.
The outcome of the power struggle in strategic heavyweight Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous country, is likely to have the biggest impact in the Gaza Strip, where a Mursi win will give a political boost to the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.
Hamas hopes an Islamist-led Egypt will loosen the shackles of a long-running Israeli blockade. If the Brotherhood takes control, Hamas also hopes its position in the internal struggle with Western-backed President Mahmoud Abbas may be strengthened.
“It is very normal that we are much happier that Mohammad Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, should be the president of Egypt,” Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zohri told Reuters.
But while it could prove a morale boost for Hamas, few believe a victory for Mursi will bring substantial change to either Egypt’s peace deal with Israel or the blockade, which has been maintained with the complicity of Egyptian authorities.
“I do not think that we will see changes regarding the blockade, as the Egyptian intelligence is responsible for this issue, taking into consideration the international agreements with Israel,” said Gaza-based analyst Mohammad Abu Sida.
“Egypt is facing a very complicated period that will lead to political uncertainty ... as we witness contradictions of interests between the military council and the ... Brotherhood.”
Transition process
While Egyptians go through a tortuous transition process that has seen parliamentary polls cancelled and the power of president cast into doubt, Tunisians breathe a sigh of relief.
Their own journey has been far smoother, with no military rulers to turn the tables against the Islamist Al Nahda party that won the first election of the Arab Spring in October.
Unlike the Brotherhood, Al Nahda kept its promise not to run in presidential elections, going some way to reassuring the powerful secularist establishment, though a victory for the military’s Shafiq could embolden members of the former regime who have already formed a party ahead of next year’s polls.
Watching even more closely are the Libyans, who go to the polls in early July for the first national elections since the ouster of Muammar Gaddafi in a Nato-backed rebellion last year.
As in other North African countries, the local incarnation of the Brotherhood has emerged as a key player in elections.
For the first time in their history, youths from Libya’s once-banned Brotherhood are campaigning on Tripoli streets, distributing brochures for their Justice and Development Party.
“Mursi winning will give a boost to our cause in Libya,” said Marwan Al Katib, 21.
“Libyans will say: oh, the Brotherhood won in Egypt so we need to learn more about this group and maybe they are the right people for us.”
