Cairo Both candidates for Egypt’s presidency have pledged to respect the country’s peace treaty with Israel, but they differ greatly in their approach, especially regarding the Palestinians.
In addition to preserving the peace with Israel, Ahmad Shafiq, a former Egyptian air force general, is expected to continue Egypt’s patronage of the mainstream Palestinian faction Fatah. The group, which leads the Palestinian Authority, cooperates with Israel.
Shafiq’s military background and his role as the last prime minister to have served under the deposed president, Hosni Mubarak, suggest that he would approach Hamas, the Islamist faction which controls Gaza, with suspicion and hostility. Mubarak was one of Israel’s staunchest allies.
Mohammad Mursi, the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood and former leader of its parliamentary bloc, has a long history of critical statements about Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians.
Mursi has also criticised Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas for what he called gullible collaboration with Israel in the absence of a Palestinian state, and he has praised Hamas for resisting the Israel occupation.
“For Hamas, it means the final outcome of this election will be the difference between winning Egypt and more of the same,” said Jamal Abdul Jawad, director of the Ahram Centre in Cairo.
Brotherhood leaders have said they intend to use their influence with both Fatah and Hamas to urge them to compromise with each other to press Israel to recognise a Palestinian state.
Hamas officials have acknowledged that they are looking more to Egypt and the Brotherhood for support as they move away from Syria. A top Hamas official, Mousa Mohammad Abu Marzouq, settled in Cairo after fleeing the unrest in Syria and maintains close ties with the Brotherhood. He could not be reached for comment on Friday, but the recording on his spokesman’s cellphone was set to the theme song of the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party.
Egypt awaits the writing of a new constitution whcih will define the powers of the president, but the office is expected to oversee foreign policy, possibly in consultation with military leaders.
Thus, gaining the presidency would pose challenges to Mursi and the Brotherhood. If, as promised, the Brotherhood maintains the peace with Israel, Mursi as president could be expected to meet with Israeli’s ambassador and top officials, which for the Brotherhood would mark a new level of official recognition of the Israeli state.
The Israeli government, though alarmed at the prospect of a less-friendly Egypt, has maintained a wary silence about the elections, fearing any perceived interference could backfire.
But Israeli analysts and experts view Shafiq as a moderate who can probably be counted on to keep his promise to preserve Egypt’s 33-year-old peace treaty with Israel.
Many Israeli analysts say they are grappling less with the question of who the president will be, and more with the question of what direction he, and Egypt, will take.
“The balance between the presidency, the government, the Parliament, the army and public opinion will determine the future of Egypt and its relations with its neighbours, including Israel," said an Israeli government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the nature of the subject.
Given the social and economic problems confronting Egypt at the moment, even the presidential candidates most critical of Israel have acknowledged that Cairo can ill afford strife with Israel or its Western allies.
New York Times
