Arab world awaits new president

Dubai: The next president of Egypt will greatly impact the country's foreign policy and its role in the Arab world.

Should an Islamist candidate win, it will be the "coronation for the era of political Islam" after their victories in parliamentary elections held in some other Arab countries, analysts have noted.

Should a Mubarak-era candidate win, the situation could range between sensitive and critical, and there is a possibility of people taking to the streets again to protest, depending on the name of the winner.

Should a nationalist win, change is expected to be more "fundamental" and Egypt will be brought closer to the nationalistic and democratic path, they added.

Yet, "regarding the winner, electing a president to Egypt is by itself a [big] change," said Palestinian analyst Hani Al Masri.

Speaking to Gulf News, Al Masri added: "This is something new in the region, especially in Egypt. There was one candidate and the result was a foregone conclusion.

"This change will definitely carry consequences in the middle and long terms [in the region], but not the immediate [term] because Egypt will be busy with its own [internal] problems, security and economy," he added.

However, Al Masri expects Egypt's relations with Israel to witness a change.

Critical of Israel

"Regardless of who is going to win, there is a concern in Israel because there was a strategic trove to Israel named Hosni Mubarak," he said, "Egypt's relations with Israel will not continue as they were during Mubarak's days."

Mubarak ruled Egypt, the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, for 30 years.

Most of the Egyptian candidates are criticising Israel in their campaigns, as the "word" of the people is currently holding weight and Israel is not popular among Egyptians, analysts noted.

Other Arab regimes are following the Egyptian presidential elections and have concerns over the rising Islamists in the political system, they added.

"The problem is that the constitution has not been written," said Abdul Aziz Sager, chairman of Gulf Research Centre.

While it is still unclear whether Egypt will be following a presidential system or a parliamentary system, Arab Gulf countries "fear a repetition of the Iranian example", where all the officials in power represent the same trend.

"This is our fear," he told Gulf News in an interview.

Should the Islamists control the main decision-making positions in the county, mainly the presidency and parliament, "this means that the Muslim Brotherhood will support all the brotherhood in every place they can reach", explained Sager.

However, when the president comes from a different background other than Islamist, the internal differences "will not be exported abroad".

The two Islamist candidates, Mohammad Morsi and Abdul Moneim Abu Al Fotouh, are among the top runners.

Regain political role

Also, Amr Mousa, former Foreign Minister and secretary-general of the Arab League, and Ahmad Shafiq, the former prime minister in Mubarak's regime, are also in the race with a good chance.

At the same time, many Arabs, including scores of intellectuals supporting the nationalist trend, are following the elections in the heavy-weight Arab country hoping that the new president will regain Egypt's role in the political arena.

"While it is true that voting is a right for Egyptian people inside and outside their country, Egypt's future is something that matters to all Arabs everywhere," read a petition signed by scores of Arab intellectuals, journalists and activists around the world to support Hamdeen Sabahi, a veteran Nasserite opposition figure and a former MP.

Meanwhile, many analysts believe it is "difficult until the last minute" to say who is going to be the winner, as Sager said.

To Al Masri, the results will start to formulate after the first round.

"At the end, there will be an Islamist candidate facing a candidate from Mubarak's era.

"If Sabahi wins, there will be a big change, but other candidates seem to have better chances [at present]," he added.