Beirut: The governments of Turkey and Russia, two major players in the nearly six-year Syrian war, have agreed on a nationwide ceasefire for Syria, according to a statement released Wednesday by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. It could go into effect as early as midnight on 29 December 2016.
This breakthrough comes at the heels of secret talks taking place in Istanbul since mid-November, hosted by the Turkish government, between Russian and Syrian officers on one front, and commanders of the Syrian armed opposition on the other. The talks, persistently sheltered from media coverage by all sides, offered de facto Russian recognition of armed groups in the Syrian north, like the powerful Turkish-backed Ahrar Al Sham, which Moscow had previously written off as “a terrorist organisation.”
Russian Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov had refused to let them join the UN-mandated Geneva talks that started in January and collapsed last April but now, not only were Russian diplomats willing to sit down with these military groups, but also, to make them partners in the war against Daesh.
Additionally, the Russians offered them the right to co-administer entire pockets in the countryside of Aleppo currently under their control, thus keeping their arms and military clout, albeit under the watchful eye of Russian military personnel.
According to a Lebanese Hezbollah source well-informed with the secret talks in Istanbul, “neither the Syrians nor the Iranians are pleased” with such an understanding and they expect it to collapse in the “not too distant future.”
They would have preferred a Russian green light to march on Ahrar Al Sham and to eliminate them militarily “but that green light never came,” the source added, requesting anonymity because the comments did not tow the regime line.
It march to crush the remaining rebel groups is apparently on hold, despite the recent victory in Aleppo.
He added: “the Russians informed Damascus that Aleppo will be the last big battle for Syria—and the last big victory as well. The rest of the country has to be re-taken through a political settlement that gives something to each stakeholder in Syria, and this has to happen before Donald Trump is sworn-in on 20 January.”
Gulf News was given access to the ceasefire agreement reached in Turkey, with the hand-written amendments of Russian and Turkish officials.
The ceasefire will apply to all of Syria “with exception” to territory held by Daesh, and Jabhat Al Nusra, the Al Qaida branch in Syria.
This basically means all of Syria with the exception of Raqqa, Deir Al Zor and Albukamal on the Euphrates River, and the city of Idlib in northwestern Syria.
The two main patrons, Turkey and Russia, agreed to apply whatever pressure was needed on their proxies to uphold the agreement, regardless if they liked it or not.
Additionally the agreement prevents either camp from taking more territory once the ceasefire goes into effect and calls for ceasefire monitoring methods to be established “based on UN standards,” that would be administered by Moscow and Ankara.
According to sources in both camps of the Syria war, both speaking to Gulf News, the agreement has not yet been officially accepted by Damascus or the two major opposition groups, the Syrian National Coalition or the Saudi-backed Higher Negotiations Committee.
Hind Kabawat of the HNC, a lawyer and prominent opposition figure, told Gulf News that the Higher Negotiations Committee “supports any initiative that will lead to the saving of Syrian civilians.” She added, “Our priority is the Syrian people before anything else.”
The agreement has also not been confirmed by Moscow yet, despite its public announcement by the Turkish National News Agency.
There are plenty of sticking points that still need to be addressed at an upcoming Syria conference called for by President Vladimir Putin in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan in mid-January 2017.
According to the ceasefire document, the peace talks will start “within one month” of implementation of the ceasefire.
If it holds the Russians will take it to the United Nations to cement it into a binding resolution.
The choice of venue for the upcoming conference is noteworthy, reflecting Putin’s interest to host the talks on pro-Russian territory, given that the Kazakh government has not severed diplomatic relations with Damascus and still coordinates with Syrian intelligence regarding the activity of 300 Kazakh citizens fighting with Daesh in the countryside of Aleppo.
The Kazakhstan conference, which is yet to be announced officially, will bring top Russian, Turkish, and Iranian diplomats with both camps of the Syrian conflict.
It would be a “stepping stone” to a “new and final” set of UN-mandated talks in Geneva on 8 February 2016.
The Kazakhstan conference notably excludes major players like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France, Great Britain, the US, and the United Nations.
The Russians insist that the ceasefire will lead to a “transition period,” based on UNSCR 2254, which will be discussed in Kazakhstan, not from regime rule to opposition but from one-party rule to a power-sharing formula that involves giving the opposition certain portfolios in the Syrian Government but not overall control of the state.
The Russians insist that the “transition period” will pave the road for a new constitution and early parliamentary and presidential elections, where Al Assad gets to run for another term in office.
Many believe that Turkey has conceded to this, at least in private, but publically the Turkish government insists that for the transition to succeed, Al Assad must step down.
On Wednesday, the Turkish Foreign Minister said that it is “not possible” for the transition to start with the Syrian President, adding, “We also know that it is impossible for these people to unite around Al Assad.”
Additionally, the Russians are trying to secure some kind of Kurdish representation at the Kazakhstan talks, something that is strongly vetoed by Turkey.
The Turks will only accept Kurdish participation if they are part of the government delegation and not as members of the Syrian Opposition.
Additionally Ankara wants the ceasefire to exclude, in addition to Daesh and Al Nusra, Kurdish militias on Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s blacklist, namely the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Party (PYD) and its military arm, the YPG.
He also wants to exclude the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that are fighting Daesh in the Syrian north.
Turkish President Recept Tayyip Erdogan made it clear: “We will not welcome a decision to invite terrorist groups to the (Kazakhstan) summit.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that talks were underway between the regime and the opposition ahead of the Kazakhstan conference, but the Saudi-backed opposition denied knowledge of such talks. Reportedly, invitations are being prepared for the Astana conference, and opposition figures will be asked to attend in their individual capacities and not as members of political groups.
This is designed to deny Saudi Arabia a seat at the Kazakhstan conference.
Meaning the Syrian National Coalition will not be invited to Astana, but at least two of its former presidents, Mu’ath Al Khatib and Ahmad Al Jarba, will be.
