Dubai: While it is not at all uncommon for fighter aircraft from one nation to violate the airspace of another in the Middle East, it is very rare for them to be shot out of the skies. Yet Turkey took this step, and not just against any country but against a major world power.
Ankara has taken a gamble, and sent Russia a message. Indeed, it is for the first time in decades that a Russian aircraft has been brought down by a Nato member state.
Speaking to Gulf News from London, Professor Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East expert from the London School of Economics, said Turkey has warned Russia before but not shot at its aircraft. “Now, new factors have emerged. The Syrian army has made major advances [with the help of Russian air strikes] near the Latakia mountains, where the ethnic Turkmen minority, who are allied to Turkey, are based. Russian leaders, too, recognise this angle. Besides, there is a link between what has been happening for a week or so and the downing of the aircraft.”
It was indeed a Turkmen unit of the Free Syrian Army that claimed to have killed one of the pilots. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed on Wednesday that the missing pilot had been picked up by Syrian soldiers.
Dr Gerges said he foresees a Russian response within Syrian territory, and that there will be a marked escalation in the already heavy air strikes against rebel and Daesh targets in Syria. “Russia is a great power, not a banana republic. Shooting down a warplane like this is a big thing. This was a slap in the face for Moscow. Russia has major military assets. Its response will be inside Syria, especially in places where Turkish interests are involved,” he said.
However, when asked about the Russian response to Turkey’s action, Dr Mustafa Al Ani, director of national security and terrorism at the Gulf Research Centre said the issue would gradually die out. “The Russians will just make some noises. Putin understands that militarily, the balance of power in the Syrian conflict is not in his favour. Russian aircraft [stationed in the region] are obsolete when compared to that of Nato states [like Turkey]. Russia cannot stand up to Nato states,” Dr Alani told Gulf News.
If there is an escalation, Dr Al Ani believes Russia understands that its forces in Syria can become sitting ducks to Turkish-backed and Turkish-supplied rebels. He also said that Turkey would not have taken a serious step like shooting down a Russian jet without the understanding and permission of its Nato allies. “You cannot get into a military engagement without other members accepting this sort of policy.”
However, both powers have a vested interest in not letting things get out of control, given the scale of the bilateral trade between them, which is worth billions.
Asked about the implications of all this on the global fight against Daesh that is gathering steam, Dr Gerges said the terror group has consistently shown itself to be able to exploit the differences and tensions in the anti-Daesh coalition. “Daesh has time and again found opportunities. And luck is a part of what you do. [The problem is that] there is no solid anti-Daesh coalition. Without that, I don’t see how the group can be defeated. And especially if Russia says that Turkey is in cohorts with Daesh, it is a very serious allegation, with deep implications.”
