Beirut: In late June, Russian technicians and military personnel started work on a new construction site in Khirbet Ra’es Al Waer, a small town approximately 50km from Damascus. The end objective is to build a brand new military base for the Russian Army, on territory leased by the Syrian Government to Moscow for 49 years last January. It is renewable for another 25 years based on mutual consent between Moscow and Damascus.

Only accessible to Russian troops and officers, the new base will include air defence systems, radars, runways, missile launchers, bunkers, control towers, refuelling stations, and housing units that can accommodate up to 1,000 soldiers.

The new base will be the third for the Russian Army in Syria since Vladimir Putin authorised a military intervention in September 2015. It would also be the first that is so close to the Syrian capital, as the two other ones are located in the coastal cities of Tartous and Latakia.

Ebrahim Hamidi, senior diplomatic editor at Ahsarq Alawsat, who has been following the Russian development closely, told Gulf News: “Since 2015, Russia has been trying to position itself as a key player in solving the Syrian crisis, cutting deals with everybody in the battlefield. By establishing a military base in Ras Al Wa’er, Moscow is also trying to safeguard American and Israeli interests as well, given that both, along with the Jordanians, want Iran’s militias and Hezbollah to be pushed away from the border area, which they want freed from all non-state, non-Syrian players (Jabhat Al Nusra, Daesh, and Hezbollah). Perhaps with their new base, the Russians will now deploy their military police in the Golan to make sure that such a buffer is created.”

Indeed, the new base is expected to play a significant role in the policing of the Syrian south, given its location less than 100km from the Syrian-Jordanian border. This development comes after Russia, Jordan, and the US agreed to carve out a new “de-conflict zone” in Syria, stretching from the border area to the countryside of Suwaida in the Druze Mountain, encompassing the strategic town of Al Quneitra in the Syrian Golan.

Damascus will refrain from sending tanks, soldiers and warplanes to this new area, but will get to raise the Syrian Flag, and to reopen both government schools and police stations, running the territory through a “civilian authority”.

Russian military personnel are expected to man the new zone, just like 600 Russian military police are doing in east Aleppo since January 2017. Their duties will include making sure that both camps of the Syrian conflict refrain from opening fire on each other, and that they unite their efforts in combating non-state players thriving in the Syrian south, like Jabhat Al Nusra, the Al Qaida branch in Syria, and Daesh, operating in the Daraa countryside under the name of the Khaled Ibn Al Waleed Army.

Additionally, the Russians are expected to supervise and record violations of the ceasefire agreement, reached at the Astana talks last May, and make sure that humanitarian aid reaches besieged towns and villages. At the latest round that wrapped up on Wednesday, discussion of the southern de-conflict zone was postponed, and it was decided to start implementation now only of the zones in north of Homs, east of Damascus, and in Idlib in the Syrian northwest.

Senior Fellow at Carnegie Middle East Yezid Sayegh told Gulf News: “I completely doubt Russia would do anything in the south without coordinating with Israel. Russia however doesn’t need an extra airfield in the south so as to undertake combat sorties there, as the distance from its coastal bases is small. It’s likely that this base would be linked to the de-escalation process. Whether and how it will affect the regime’s actions in eastern Ghouta and Daraa remain to be seen, until there is a full de-escalation everywhere. I assume the regime will try to gain more ground and impose its “reconciliations” especially in Al Ghouta.”

Syrian analyst Ziad Haider who attended previous sessions of the Syrian peace talks, addressed the Astana process and its outcomes, telling Gulf News: “It is probably efficient for imposing peace or at least calm in Syria, but still such steps remain regional and need some kind of international, UN-mandated Geneva approval. That is being politically optimistic, however, only if all players are on-board.”