Baghdad: The US-backed campaign to capture Raqqa, Daesh’s de-facto capital in Syria, will accelerate, the US envoy to the international coalition fighting the militants told reporters in Baghdad.
The US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces said on Tuesday it had launched an operation to capture Raqqa, in an assault that overlaps with the final stages of the US-backed attack to recapture the Iraqi city of Mosul.
“So similar to Mosul,” Daesh’s capital in Iraq, “the Raqqa campaign is underway. These are critical elements in the ultimate defeat of Daesh but this will be a long term effort,” Brett McGurk said, referring to Daesh.
“They are down to their last neighborhood in Mosul and they already lost part of Raqqa, and the Raqqa campaign from here will only accelerate.
. Here’s a closer look at what the coming battle means:
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WHO IS LEADING THE OFFENSIVE?
The Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces, estimated at 50,000 by the US-led coalition, have emerged as one of the principal players in the many-sided civil war. They are recognised by the US as one of the most effective fighting forces against Daesh and have captured large parts of northeastern Syria from the extremists.
The force is dominated by the Kurdish Party of Democratic Unity, or PYD, which aims to defend Kurdish areas of Syria. Despite occasional flare-ups, the PYD has had a tacit nonaggression pact with the Syrian government since the start of the civil war, and is seen by some rebels as a quiet ally of President Bashar Assad, accusations the PYD denies.
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WHAT IS THE US ROLE?
The US has provided essential military and diplomatic support to the SDF. In the run up to the battle for Raqqa, the Trump administration said it would begin supplying the Kurdish elements of the SDF with heavy weaponry, much to Turkey’s displeasure. It is already understood to have hundreds of special forces operators embedded with the SDF in what the Pentagon says are advisory roles. And beyond providing daily artillery and air support, the US also dropped SDF fighters, US commandos and weapons behind Daesh lines in a daring raid in March that helped free the stronghold of Tabqa from the militants.
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WHAT ARE TURKEY’S OBJECTIONS?
Turkey views the PYD as an extension of the Kurdish insurgency raging in its southeast and often speaks of the PYD and Daesh as similar threats. Turkish forces and thousands of allied Syrian opposition fighters launched their own offensive in northern Syria in 2016, clashing with both the PYD and Daesh.
In April, Turkey struck Kurdish positions in Syria and Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters. It prompted the US to parade its forces in Kurdish areas to discourage further conflict.
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HOW SOON UNTIL RAQQA IS FREED FROM Daesh?
If Mosul is any indication, the battle for Raqqa will be a long and grinding one. Iraqi forces have been tied up in Mosul since October, where they have faced stiff resistance in the form of suicide car bombs, rocket attacks and booby-trapped buildings. Raqqa is much smaller than Mosul, but even the battles for Manbij and Tabqa - towns in northwest Syria on the SDF’s route to Raqqa - took weeks to complete.
Prolonged combat will expose civilians trapped in Raqqa to great peril. Already, the international coalition is facing accusations of striking nonmilitary targets across Syria and Iraq, killing hundreds of civilians. In May, the Pentagon admitted to carrying out a strike in Mosul that killed at least 105 civilians and two Daesh fighters.
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WOULD THE LOSS OF RAQQA MEAN THE END OF Daesh?
Losing Raqqa would deal a major blow to the extremist group. The city is the seat of power for its so-called caliphate and has been home to top Daesh leaders. It is also where the militants are believed to have plotted attacks in the West, including the 2015 assault on Paris.
But Daesh already has begun preparing its followers for the potential loss of territory, shifting its leadership and resources to the eastern Syrian city of Deir Al Zor. It is currently contesting that city with the Syrian government.
The militants also are likely to shift back to their insurgent roots. As forces close in on Raqqa, many fighters are expected to melt into the civilian population, with some forming “sleeper cells” that could hatch new attacks.
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WHAT ABOUT SYRIA’S CIVIL WAR?
After six years of fighting, President Bashar Al Assad has regained control of Syria’s five largest cities and its coast. But the economy is in tatters and half the country’s population is displaced. The cost of rebuilding is expected to run in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Battles are continuing on several fronts.
Assad and his allies have always prioritized fighting Syrian rebels so long as there have been other forces to battle with the Daesh group. But with the western backbone under their control, pro-government forces have shifted their attention to the militant group, and most importantly, to Deir Al Zor.
That campaign has already threatened to ignite conflict with the coalition against the Daesh. Two of the government’s three routes to Deir Al Zor intersect with rebel and Kurdish forces supported by the US In May, the US struck a column of pro-government forces it judged were moving threateningly toward its local allies in the eastern Syrian desert. Several government soldiers were killed.
