Mogadishu: Somalia’s Al Shabab militants are divided over whether to maintain their allegiance to Al Qaida or shift to Daesh, according to militant and security sources, analysts and clan elders.
The division comes at a time when Daesh in Iraq and Syria has become the militant franchise of choice, attracting fighters from abroad and other militant groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria, while Al Qaida too has recently expanded its territory in Yemen.
“Why is it a surprise to hear that Al Shabab may join the Daesh? All Muslims have to unite against their enemy,” said a Al Shabab commander, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The commander said Al Shabab “would be more than happy to join forces to strike the enemy of Islam harder”.
The admission comes at a time when Al Shabab is under pressure militarily but remains able to launch guerrilla and terror attacks, seemingly at will, against civilian targets in Somalia and Kenya.
This month Al Shabab killed 148 people, mostly students, during an armed assault on a university in Garissa, northeastern Kenya, while suicide bombers and gunmen have attacked hotels and a restaurant in Mogadishu and a United Nations minibus in the northern Somali town of Garowe.
Garissa echoed the 2013 Westgate Mall attack in Nairobi, with just four gunmen and multiple accounts of the singling out of non-Muslims for murder, a tactic also used in Al Shabab attacks on a bus and quarry in Mandera, Kenya, late last year.
But Garissa was both Al Shabab’s most deadly and most brutal attack yet. The gunmen herded scores of young non-Muslim men and women into a university hall of residence. They were made to lie side-by-side on the courtyard floor and executed.
It was an assault worthy in its thirst for blood of Daesh, which has distinguished itself through mass executions, many of which are recorded and distributed online.
Some see Al Shabab’s vacillations as a sign of weakness.
“Al Shabab is desperate. They have lost ground in Somalia, they may be considering joining the so-called Daesh in Iraq and Syria so that they get funds and moral support,” said Mohamad Ebrahim, a Somali security official.
But others suggest Al Shabab is still considered a valuable partner in Islamist militancy.
“There’s a debate going on between the core leaders whether to switch to Daesh, whether to stay with Al Qaida,” Somalia’s prime minister Omar Abdul Rashid Ali Sharmarke said.
“Both Daesh and Al Qaida are appealing to Al Shabab to join them,” he said.
Sharmarke said that recent territorial gains in Yemen by Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the strongest of Al Qaida’s franchises, might embolden and strengthen Al Shabab.
“It’s really crucial now because this can spill over from the Yemen conflict and easily come to Somalia,” he said. “The Gulf of Aden can become a corridor to Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
Sources in southern Somalia, where Al Shabab fighters and commanders are now concentrated, confirmed that meetings have taken place to discuss the Daesh/AQAP issue.
“We have heard about a meeting by Al Shabab senior leaders,” said Hassan Nure, an elder in Lower Shabelle region. “They haven’t agreed anything so far, some of them are still very reluctant because they want to maintain relations with Al Qaida.”
“The dispute in Al Shabab over whether to remain loyal to Al Qaida or align instead with Daesh is very real,” says Tres Thomas, a Washington-based Somali expert and manager of the respected Somalia Newsroom blog.
Analysts say Al Shabab leader Ahmad Diriye, also known as Ahmad Omar Abu Obaidah, is an Al Qaida loyalist, while the powerful secret police chief, Mahad Karate, is the most senior proponent of a shift to Daesh.
A shift to Daesh might bring financial benefits. “If Al Shabab were to align with Daesh it would mean an increase in money and resources that Al Qaida cannot provide at the moment,” said a Western security source.
It might also provide a political boost and a propaganda coup.
“In some ways you inherit the strength of the group to whom you pledge allegiance,” said Roland Marchal, a terrorism expert and senior research fellow at the National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in Paris.
But for Marchal, the long and strong links between Al Shabab and AQAP would make switching allegiance a financial and political wrench, as well as a tricky decision.
“The Al Shabab leadership remains closely linked to AQAP and it’s hard to believe that they would switch to Daesh just like that.”
And the extent of internal Al Shabab support for a move is not known.
“It is unclear how big and influential the pro-Daesh faction is and whether it would be able to shift broader opinion in Al Shabab, outside of a number of foreign fighters who are also behind an Daesh alliance,” said Thomas.
In any case, a simple shift of allegiance may do little to increase Al Shabab’s appeal to potential recruits.
“While Al Shabab would like to see militants, particularly those of Somali descent, come to Somalia instead of Syria and Iraq, an alliance with Daesh would not change the fact that Al Shabab’s dwindling territorial control and urban attacks against civilians are still a major disincentive for recruits.”
