Crude price surge brings baby boom

A surge in crude prices in 2000 allowed the UAE to snatch its highest income of petrodollars since oil first gushed out of its arid desert more than 40 years ago, and this windfall was accompanied by another bonanza: a record birth rate.

Amazingly, the birth rate fell to one of its lowest levels in 1998 when oil prices collapsed to nearly $10 because of a production and price war among the producers.

But it seems oil prices are not the only factor influencing the families' decision to have more babies. Political instability and tensions appeared to have a completely opposite effect, as less babies were born during the 1990-1991 Gulf crisis.

Figures by the Ministry of Planning showed a record 53,686 babies were born in the UAE in 2000 when oil prices shot above $27 and fetched the country its biggest income of around $23 billion since it began exporting crude oil in the early 1960s.

Local birth rate was clearly affected more by oil price changes over the past years less number of babies were born when oil prices collapsed in 1998.

A break up showed that national births have grown steadily since 1981 to reach 18,952 in 1989 before they retreated to 18,760 in 1990 and 18,380 in 1991, when the Gulf war erupted. When the war was over in 1992 and peace moves gained momentum in the Middle East, national births started to pick up to reach 19,295.

Expatriate births were also affected but not as fast as that of the nationals. In 1990, they still recorded one of the highest rates of 33,504 births but they dropped sharply to 31,116 in 1991.

According to the study by the Ministry of Planning, a total of 385,821 local babies were born between 1981 and 2001 while the expatriate births were estimated at 605,831.

Experts said the average birth rate among the UAE citizens is much higher but the local population has been far outnumbered by the foreigners.

Independent estimates put the ratio of nationals to foreign population at around 25 to 75. They said the gap is narrowing because of high growth in the native population and a slowdown in the inflow of foreign migrants, coupled with an exodus in expatriates to their home countries.

They expected the gap to further narrow in the medium and long-terms as a result of the government's policy to ease reliance on the expatriates.

"The native population is growing much faster than the foreign population due to the government's policy to encourage citizens to have more children," one expert said.

"This will combine with the restrictive labour and visa measures for foreigners and an accelerating exodus of expatriates to narrow the demographic gap that was created following the discovery of oil more than four decades ago."

As a whole, the population growth in the UAE was estimated at seven per cent over the past two decades and more than 15 per cent during 1970s.