Madrid: On Thursday, more than 46 million British citizens are entitled to cast their ballots in a general election darkened by attacks in two cities, leaving forecasters struggling to predict an outcome on polling day.
Across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, a total of 650 Members of Parliament (MPs) will be elected on a first-past-the-post system.
When the snap election was called by UK Prime Minister Theresa May five weeks ago, it appeared as if her Conservative party, which held a majority of 330 seats in the House of Commons at London’s Westminster Palace on dissolution, would significantly increase their seats, taking advantage of the party’s 20 percentage points lead in opinion polls and apparent disarray in the ranks of the main opposition Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn.
It was another former UK Prime Minister, Harold Wilson who noted in the 1960s that a week was a long time in politics. With two terrorist attacks, in Manchester on May 22 and London last Saturday night, five weeks of the campaign seem like an eternity for May, who has seen support for her Conservatives consistently dwindle.
Weekend opinion polls show her party is still the most popular but her personal rating are down. And Corbyn, who has faced two revolts of Labour MPs during his 21-month-old leadership of the party, is growing in popularity for being more accessible and likeable on the doorstep.
In the wake of the terrorist attacks, May has come under fire for cutting back front line police officers during her six years as the Home Secretary — the British minister for the interior responsible for policing, security and MI5, the UK’s domestic intelligence agency.
She’s also appeared to be unsettled by dealing with hard questions from members of public — and her party handlers have kept her away from contact as much as possible.
She has refused to participate in televised debates, with Corbyn coming across as more reasonable, honest and plain speaking. He has gone so far to suggest that May should resign because of her record in cutting more than 20,000 front line police officers during her tenure as Home Secretary. His party is promising to hire 10,000 new police officers immediately if Labour forms the next government.
May is fighting to revive her message that she is a “strong and stable” leader compared with Corbyn, able to fight Britain’s corner in Brussels, where formal Brexit talks are due to start on June 19.
“Get those negotiations wrong and the consequences will be dire,” May said Wednesday.
Corbyn made an eve-of-voting pitch on the National Health Service (NHS), a beloved institution.
“The Conservatives have spent the last seven years running down our NHS, our proudest national institution. Our NHS cannot afford five more years of underfunding, understaffing and privatisation,” he said. Despite being seen as an unlikely leader — one who has faced off a rebellion by his own MPs — Corbyn has gained momentum during the election campaign and regularly attracts big crowds to his rallies.
Labour gained a boost following the May 18 release of the Conservatives’ manifesto, outlining elderly care costs which the tabloids dubbed the “dementia tax”.
The pledge hit the party’s core supporters and May was forced to backtrack on capping the costs, prompting further criticism that she was unreliable.
Corbyn then found a valuable seam in attacking May on security, an area where the Conservatives traditionally are far stronger than Labour in voters’ minds.
“The expectations of the opinion polls are extremely divergent,” said John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Scotland, who said the outcome could hinge on the turnout among young voters, believed to be overwhelmingly pro-Labour.
University of London professor Eric Kaufmann agreed, but noted that traditionally turnout among young people in British elections was low.
“There’s no obvious reason why that would rebound,” he said. “I’m sort of with the general polls which suggest that the Tories will increase their majority by around 25 seats ... a good majority, not as much as it looked it could have been at one point, but I think it’s pretty solid.”
That would bring May’s majority up to around 40.
— with inputs from agencies
Here’s a look at how the two main leaders and the issues stack up heading into Thursday’s ballot:
The leaders
Theresa May, Conservative party
Theresa May became Britain’s second female prime minister last July but, unlike her predecessor Margaret Thatcher, she came to power without winning an election.
The Conservative leader aims to put that right by convincing voters that she is the tough, competent leader the country needs to steer it through difficult times.
A Conservative colleague once called her “a bloody difficult woman”, when he thought no one was listening, and she now wears that description as a badge of honour. Others have described her as “rigid” and “inflexible”.
But until she moved into Downing Street, following the resignation of David Cameron, she was, in truth, something of a mystery, even to many in her own party.
She is an intensely private politician, by modern standards, and has rarely opened up about her personal feelings or beliefs.
Briefly
Date of birth: October 1, 1956 (aged 60)
Job: MP for Maidenhead since 1997. Home Secretary 2010-2016
Education: Mainly state-educated at Wheatley Park Comprehensive School with a brief time at an independent school; St Hugh’s College, Oxford
Family: Married to Philip May
Hobbies: Cooking — she says she owns 100 recipe books. Occasional mountain walks. On BBC Radio 4’s Desert Island Discs in 2014, she chose Abba’s Dancing Queen and Walk Like A Man, from the musical Jersey Boys, among her picks, alongside Mozart and Elgar. She chose a subscription to Vogue as her luxury item, reflecting her lifelong love of high fashion.
Jeremy Corbyn, Labour Party
Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader in September 2015, at the age of 66, was one of the biggest upsets in British political history.
A veteran socialist, who had spent 30 years on the back benches championing controversial causes and voting with his conscience, he had been persuaded to stand only because none of his friends on the Labour left had wanted to do it.
But something about the bearded, unassuming Islington North MP struck a chord with Labour members in a way that his three younger, more polished — and more obviously careerist — rivals did not.
His election as leader, by a thumping majority, heralded a remarkable revival in fortunes for a brand of left-wing Labour politics that looked to have been consigned to the dustbin of history by Tony Blair.
He has endured fierce criticism from senior party figures and a failed attempt to unseat him through a second leadership election.
Briefly
Date of birth: May 26, 1949 (age 67)
Job: MP for Islington North since 1983
Education: Briefly at fee-paying preparatory school before a state primary and then, after passing 11-plus, a grammar school, in Newport, Shropshire
Family: Lives with third wife. Has three sons from earlier marriage
Hobbies: Running, cycling, cricket, jam-making with fruit grown on his allotment and Arsenal football club. His most unusual hobby is an interest in the history and design of manhole covers. He is also a fluent Spanish speaker, who enjoys Latin American literature
