David Cameron has promised to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s membership of the EU. The process is secretive, but here’s what we know about what Cameron will try and secure:
— Prevent Eurozone states from “ganging up” on Britain in access to the single market as they seek to integrate further
— Excusing Britain from the principle of ever closer union
— Giving more power to national parliaments to ‘red card’ EU plans
— Denying EU migrants access to in-work benefits for four years
— Ending child benefit payments to migrants’ children overseas
— No free movement for new EU states until their economies develop
— Cut red tape, complete the single market in services and sign major trade deals with the US and Asia
— Full on treaty change is essential
— The process is followed by an in-out referendum by the end of 2017
Brexit back room boys
A dozen little-known civil servants and Eurocrats are locked in weekly talks in Brussels to renegotiate Britain’s new deal with Europe. They are:
Team UK
Ivan Rogers: British ambassador to the EU and chief negotiator. Former Treasury civil servant who worked in Tony Blair’s private office
Tom Scholar: Cameron’s chief Europe adviser. Another ex-Treasury civil servant, former Chief of Staff to Gordon Brown
Ed Llewellyn: Cameron’s loyal chief of staff accompanies him around the world
Daniel Korski: Downing Street adviser, acts as low-level envoy to EU capitals
Mats Persson: Swedish basketball ace, ex-director of Open Europe and Downing Street adviser tasked with keeping MEPs sweet
Team EU
Donald Tusk: Polish president of the European Council. Will have to hammer out agreement with 27 other member states
Jonathan Faull: Long-serving British Eurocrat in charge of the EU Brexit Taskforce. Expert knowledge of the wiring of the Eurozone banking system
Martin Selmayr: Jean-Claude Juncker’s all-powerful chief of staff
Hubert Legal: EU’s top lawyer, tasked with finding creative legal solutions to seemingly impossible problems
Piotr Serafin: Former Polish minister and Donald Tusk’s right hand man
Jeppe Tranholm-Mikkelson: Secretary General of the European Council, nicknamed ‘the EU dictionary’ for his encyclopedic knowledge of Brussels
What would a Brexit mean for Britain?
The United Kingdom might look a lot less united. If voters decide to quit the EU, the Scottish National Party say they will push for a second referendum on independence. The party, led by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, says remaining inside the European Union is a top priority. So a break-up from Brussels, but also a break-up of Britain.
And then there’s the economy
The Open Europe think tank reckons that leaving the EU could cost the British economy 2.2 per cent of its total economic output by 2030.
It would cost the UK £78 billion (Dh250 billion) annually if London quits the bloc and fails to agree a free trade deal and pursue a free-market, pro business agenda.
Some firms have already said that they would look into leaving Britain if a ‘Brexit’ becomes a reality
Threatening noises
The Financial Times reported that Deutsche Bank, which employs 9,000 people in the UK, has already set up a working group to consider such a scenario with a view to quitting the country.
Asian giant HSBC says it too might relocate its HQ out of London, whilst carmakers Hyundai, Ford and Nissan would mull their investments in the UK if Britons voted to leave.
Former Deputy PM Nick Clegg repeatedly claimed that three million jobs would be at stake if Britain left.
But Ryan Bourne of the Institute for Economic Affairs, a free-market think tank, wrote in March that “there is no evidence to suggest that trade would substantially reduce between British businesses and European consumers, even if the UK was outside the EU.”
“The 3 to 4.2 million jobs are associated with trade, not with being a member of a collective political union with 27 other states,” he said.
What would a Brexit mean for Europe?
Eurocrats fret that a renegotiated British relationship with Brussels may open a Pandora’s box; it could set the example for many other members of how they should deal with the EU — a membership à la carte.
Some in Brussels may cheer the departure of a country some see as the EU’s awkward customer, but on big question is who would pick up the tab?
Borders and passports
In theory, Britons could be required to obtain a visa to travel to the rest of Europe. They may also lose residency rights in the rest of the EU. And the Republic of Ireland’s open border to Northern Ireland have to see frontier posts installed — potentially stirring up political violence and anti-British sentiment in Northern Ireland.
