Bonn: Inadequate national targets for curbing climate-altering greenhouse gases meant emissions would be “far above” the level required to stave off disastrous global warming, analysts warned on Wednesday.

Instead of the UN-targeted ceiling of two degrees Celsius of average warming over pre-Industrial Revolution levels, the world was on track for 2.9-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100, according to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a tool developed by a consortium of four research organisations.

“The climate targets so far submitted to the UN by governments collectively lead to global emissions far above the levels needed to hold warming to below 2 C [degrees Celsius],” said a CAT statement.

So far, 56 governments have submitted pledges, known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), to a UN roster that will form the backbone of a universal climate-rescue pact to be inked in Paris in December.

Including major emitters China, the United States and the 28-member European Union, the pledges cover some 65 per cent of global emissions, and 43 per cent of the world population.

To stay under the two degrees Celsius threshold, which scientists say is necessary to avoid worst-case scenario global warming, greenhouse gas emissions would have to drop from about 50 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) per year today, to 39-43 GtCO2e in 2025 and 36-45 GtCO2e in 2030, according to the CAT.

Containing warming to an even safer 1.5 degrees Celsius would require emissions of 38 GtCO2e in 2025 and 32 GtCO2e in 2030. The world has already warmed up by 0.8 degrees Celsius — nearly half the target.

“The current INDCs lead to emissions levels that exceed the benchmark two [degrees Celsius] limit by 12-15 GtCO2e in 2025, and 17-21 GtCO2e in 2030,” said the CAT statement.

The CAT based its projections on an assessment of 16 pledges representing 64.5 per cent of global emissions in 2010, and 41 per cent of the Earth’s population.

Current targets for 2030 would make the goal “almost infeasible”, it found.

The level would instead be closer to “2.9-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100,” Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, a CAT contributor, said.

The study authors said the current level of ambition should not be locked into the long-awaited Paris agreement — the first that will commit all the world’s nations to slashing CO2 and other planet-harming greenhouse gases.

It was important that the pact, due to enter into force in 2020, included wording on narrowing the gap between what is needed and what has been promised, they warned, as diplomats met in Bonn for the penultimate round of official negotiations before the crucial November 30-December 11 Paris conference.

“It is clear that if the Paris meeting locks in present climate commitments for 2030, holding warming below two [degrees Celsius] could essentially become infeasible, and 1.5 [degrees Celsius] beyond reach,” said Hare.

Of the 15 INDCs assessed, seven were rated “inadequate” — those of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Russia.

Six were rated “medium” — those of China, the European Union, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland and the United States.

Only two, those of Ethiopia and Morocco, were “sufficient” and in line with the goal.

The world’s five top carbon emitters, in descending order, are China, the United States, the European Union, India and Russia.

“Most governments that have already submitted an INDC need to review their targets in light of the global goal and, in most cases, will need to strengthen them,” Niklas Hoehne of NewClimate Institute, another CAT contributor, said.

“Those still working on their targets need to ensure they aim as high as possible.”

The ten highest emitters yet to submit INDCs are India, Brazil, Iran, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, and Pakistan, which together account for 18 per cent of global emissions.