4 December
Italian constitutional referendum
Voters go to the polls in a referendum called by prime minister Matteo Renzi to ask if Italians approve of reforms on which he has staked his political future. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement, under its founder Beppe Grillo currently heads the polls. Grillo hailed Trump’s victory as a vindication of his own maverick stance. Renzi has said he will resign if he does not win.
4 December
Austrian presidential election
The Austrians are re-running a presidential election that could see Norbert Hofer of the right wing, anti-immigrant Freedom party, become the first head of state from the far right to enter office in an EU state since 1945. The result of the first election in May, in which Hofer came within 31,000 votes of winning, was scrapped due to irregularities in counting the postal ballots.
15 March 2017
Dutch elections
The Freedom party of right wing populist and anti-immigration campaigner Geert Wilders is neck-and-neck in opinion polls with prime minister Mark Rutte’s liberals. Wilders, who attended the Republican party convention earlier this year, has imitated the Leave campaign in the UK referendum, saying Dutch voters must “take back their country” on election day.
23 April/7 May 2017
French presidential elections
The first round of voting will be on 23 April and the leader of the anti-EU Front National Marine Le Pen is widely expected to progress to the decisive runoff. Then she is most likely to face veteran centrist Alain Juppe, a former prime minister, in the decisive vote on May 7. Juppe is favourite in a country that remains broadly pro-EU, but there is nervousness that a shock is now not impossible.
September or October 2017
German elections
Germany is the least likely country to see a populist leader. However if the Euro-sceptic (by German standards) Alternative für Deutschland, led by Frauke Petry, beat their current poll ratings, which are in the low teens, by a big margin that in itself would constitute a shock. Angela Merkel has not announced if she will stand again but her CDU/CSU is well ahead, albeit damaged by her approach to migration.
