Kathmandu: Glaciers in the Everest region could shrink at least 70 per cent or even disappear entirely by the end of the century as a result of climate change, scientists warned on Wednesday.
Researchers in Nepal, the Netherlands and France studied weather patterns on the roof of the world and then created a model of conditions on Everest to determine the future impact of rising temperatures on its glaciers.
“The worst-case scenario shows a 99 per cent loss in glacial mass ... but even if we start to slow down emissions somewhat, we may still see a 70 per cent reduction,” said Joseph Shea, who led the study.
Shea was part of a team that published a major study last year using satellite imagery to show how Nepal’s glaciers had already shrunk by nearly a quarter between 1977 and 2010.
But the latest study, published on Wednesday in international scientific journal The Cryosphere, paints a grim picture of the impact of climate change on the world’s highest peak by 2100.
“Once we had tested our model and got the weather patterns right, we increased temperatures according to different emission scenarios for a look at future scenarios,” Shea said.
Shea, a glacier hydrologist at the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, said melting glaciers could form deep lakes which could burst and flood mountain communities living downstream.
The centre is considered by experts to be the leading authority on glaciers in the Himalayas.
Meanwhile, Nepal’s government said Wednesday it had imposed a three-month ban on adoptions to try to stop vulnerable children being trafficked after a devastating earthquake.
The Ministry of Women, Children and Social Welfare said it imposed the ban as part of a package of measures after rescuing more than 50 children.
“We fear that traffickers might try to cash in on the situation people are in right now, and have taken these decisions to protect vulnerable children,” said ministry spokesman Ram Prasad Bhattarai.
Impoverished Nepal’s porous border with India made it a prime target for traffickers even before last month’s quake, which campaigners say has worsened the problem.
Police and security agencies have increased vigilance against trafficking in quake-hit areas and on the border.
The government has also made it mandatory for children travelling without their parents to carry a permission letter from local authorities.
“We are on high alert 24 hours and are strictly checking papers at border areas before allowing any crossings,” said police spokesman Kamal Singh Bam.
A cycle of unemployment and poverty and the impact of a 10-year Maoist insurgency has made Nepali women and children easy targets for traffickers.
