Bangalore: Just minutes after every aircraft crash, one would hear thousands of theories doing the rounds pointing towards [a, the] possible cause[s]. After surfing through countless news channels, talking to pilots, aviation experts and ATC officials ever since the Air India Express crashed in the morning, I am very much convinced that no journalist can ever become an expert, who could authentically write about an air crash.

Pilots experienced

The official statement from India's Civil Aviation Secretary Madhavan Nambiar states that both the pilot and the co-pilot had enough number of hours cloaked to their log books. Both put-together have close to 14,000 hours of flying. The co-pilot is from Mangalore and is very familiar with the terrain, weather, runway, descending points and the drops on the side of the airport. Both have flown in and out of the airport nearly 90 times, which clearly rules out the theory of their lack of knowledge of approach to the airport and readiness while take-offs and landings. Now, the only question one needs to probe is whether the pilot(s) had the mandatory hours of rest before undertaking the flight and whether they were in good health. However, most airlines wouldn't risk flying tired pilots and even pilots often refuse to log hours under stress.

Judgment error by the pilot

This again is a fact only a thorough probe could tell. The initial reports suggest that the pilot could have overshot the runway by 2,000 feet. "Every runway has a clear demarcation (touchdown & take-off points) and this is sacrosanct for all pilots. Though pilots overshoot this mark at times marginally, airports have cushioning space built into the runway, in addition to the flat bed available in excess," says a pilot with an international airline, wanting to be anonymous owing to the company's media policy.

But, this margin of error can be disastrous at Mangalore airport. "Unlike in Bangalore or Mumbai, even if you overshoot the runway and lose control, you still would only go into marshy land or flat ground. But in Mangalore this can be fatal considering the cliff at the end of the runway. We even landed at Mumbai airport (Runway No 27) till this March with around 5,700 feet of the runway available owing to renovation. So, it is just not the length that always matters, but how you stick to the situation is crucial. Most of the pilots are trained to operate even at such constraint-airports," he said. The table-top Mangalore airport has two runways. The old runway is 6,000 ft long while the new one is 8,000 ft and became operational in 2006 and so far it had nearly 32,000 landings.

Other possibilities

Experts tell Gulf News that even the pilot realised his mistake of landing late (over-shooting), he must have then applied brakes, which could have given in considering the speed. "The pilot could have lost control owing to the high speed at the point of landing. Not sure if the pilot made any attempts to gain speed and then height so as to go-around and come back for a proper landing, after realising his mistake of over-shooting the runway. We must also look into whether the runway was wet. Even if the brakes fail, there are back-ups for every system in an aircraft. There are mechanisms like thrust-reverser. A tyre-burst could be another reason, if you land at over-speed," an aviation expert said.

Black box crucial

Hence, the black box will be the sole equipment that could throw light into the exact reason of the crash. The data once decoded in the lab will give minute-by-minute details, while listening to the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) will fetch leads. "Generally it takes two to three days to decode black-box data. However, the delays in air crash probes are often due to the court of inquiry, procedures and collating the data. The process is time-consuming all over the world," the expert said.

The blame game has already begun with many baying for the blood of DGCA, while one section accusing the political class for forcing wide-body aircraft operations at Mangalore's ‘tricky, table-top airport.' Patience must not be in short supply during an hour of crisis and one must give the investigators time and space to find the exact cause. It would be appropriate to mourn the dead, but unfair to jump the gun with self-styled crash-cause theories.

- The writer is an aerospace and defence expert based in Bangalore