Thiruvananthapuram: The by-election to the Aruvikkara assembly constituency in Kerala last week was considered a neck-and-neck battle between the Congress and the Communist Party of India Marxist, with the Bharatiya Janata Party expected to finish some way behind.

But as it turned out, the BJP was as much a winner as the Congress, which managed to retain the constituency.

Congress debutant K. Sabarinath emerged a clear winner with 56,448 votes, defeating CPM’s M. Vijayakumar who polled 46,320 votes and BJP veteran O. Rajagopal who won an unexpectedly high 34,145 votes.

On record, the winner may be Congress, but the BJP has also gained significantly at Aruvikkara, sending a warning to Kerala’s traditional political rivals, Congress and CPM.

Early analyses indicate that the BJP has weaned away votes not only from the CPM, but from the Congress-led United Democratic Front as well.

BJP’s vote share in Aruvikkara grew from a paltry 6 per cent in the previous election to 23 per cent this time, sending shock waves to the CPM and Congress camps.

The development is particularly bad news for the CPM, which appears to have been the bigger victim of vote erosion to the BJP than the Congress. But in the long run, the trend of votes shifting to the BJP spells trouble for both Congress and CPM.

CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury dubbed the growth in BJP votes at Aruvikkara an “ominous development”, adding that it signified the “communalisation of the electorate”.

Yechury said it was particularly striking because the results came in Kerala, which has the highest literacy in the country and is considered a progressive state.

For both the CPM and the Congress, the message from Aruvikkara is that a significantly stronger BJP will make it three-cornered contests in several constituencies in the assembly elections next year.

If the BJP is able to wean away sufficient numbers of votes from either party, it could end up with a handful of MLAs in Kerala.

The BJP is yet to win a single assembly or parliament constituency in the state, but the performance of O. Rajagopal at Aruvikkara is considered a big morale boost for the party for the upcoming civic body elections later this year and the assembly polls that follow next year.