Beyond White House race, a host of critical issues on ballots across the US

Washington: Forget the fight for the White House, if just for a moment. As the 2016 campaign rumbles into its final hours, there are other things going on around the country on Election Day that are just as important and engaging. Well, almost.

Here’s a quick guide:

Marijuana and gun control

Look for marijuana to take another big step into the US mainstream. Voters in five states — California, Nevada, Arizona, Maine and Massachusetts — will decide whether to make recreational marijuana legal; if they all pass, that means that recreational marijuana will be legal in nine states. And four other states — Montana, North Dakota, Arkansas and Florida — will decide whether to legalise the use of medical marijuana.

Given the size of California — the nation’s most populous state with nearly 40 million people — approval there alone would be a milestone in the movement toward legalised pot, and no matter that federal law still outlaws it. Voters there narrowly defeated an initiative that would have made pot legal in 2010, but it is back on the ballot now with polls suggesting it is heading for an easy win, particularly in a high-turnout presidential election year.

Gun-control advocates are looking for victories in Maine and Nevada, two rural states with robust gun cultures that will vote on whether to close a loophole in federal law and require background checks for almost all gun purchases. Californians will decide if they want to ban the sale of high-capacity magazines and require background checks for ammunition purchases. In Washington state, residents will vote on whether to allow family members to seek a temporary order barring a person from access to firearms if the person is determined to pose a risk to themselves or others.

The Obama Legacy

Obama is as popular as he has been for most of his presidency. But can he translate that popularity into votes for Clinton? The president has put his reputation and support behind Clinton more than any outgoing president in memory. And there is a reason for that: concern for the fate of his biggest legislative priorities — Obamacare — but also because the election of Clinton will be judged in part as a validation of Obama’s legacy as president.

There is one important side note here: Can the nation’s first African-American president inspire the kind of turnout among African-Americans that Obama himself saw when he ran? Can Democrats count on the high levels of participation among African-Americans once Obama has left the scene? The early signs were not encouraging for Democrats in early voting; election night should answer that question.

Where the Action Really Is

Things may have ground to a halt in Congress over these past eight years, but that doesn’t mean that legislators have stopped making new policy or passing laws. It passed to the statehouses — and considering the fact that Republicans have made huge gains in statehouses during the Obama presidency, that means that much of the new policy reflects a Republican view of the world. Over the years, Republicans have used their dominant power in statehouses to, for example, put restrictions on voting, union organising and access to abortion. Democrats have pushed to expand services to the poor or provide more services to immigrants.

A key question on Tuesday is whether Democrats can recapture some of the statehouses and governorships they lost during the Obama years, in states like Nevada and New Hampshire, where Clinton had been particularly competitive. Right now it is a bit of a mismatch: Republicans held 36 of the nation’s 99 statehouse chambers in 2010, and that number has climbed to 68.

By the way, there is one important thing these legislatures will not be attending to next year: Drawing district lines for congressional and state offices. Redistricting does not happen until 2020, the year when Democrats would hope to get back enough statehouses to make up for the redistricting shellacking they took in 2010.

Remember Bernie Sanders?

A final question: Will this election produce signs of a lasting movement inspired by Sen. Bernie Sanders, Will he be a player in Democratic and national politics going into the next four years, and will the policies he advocated as a presidential candidate influence policy in a Clinton administration or in statehouses?

There are a few things to look for in measuring the durability of a Sanders movement. One, Sanders has campaigned heavily in California for a voter initiative — Proposition 61 — that would hold down the cost of prescription drugs. He endorsed it during his primary race against Clinton there, and has stuck with it since.

In Oregon, Sanders has endorsed a voter initiative that would impose a sharp increase in corporate taxes for many companies. And he has thrown his weight and name behind a single-payer health care proposal that is on the Colorado ballot, another one that might have come right out of the Sanders playbook.

Sanders is also campaigning for Democratic candidates across the country, among them Russ Feingold, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Wisconsin; Katie McGinty, a Democrat running for Senate in Pennsylvania; and Zephyr Teachout, a liberal organiser running for Congress in upstate New York. Their victories could certainly enhance Sanders’s standing in Washington.

Of course, the best way to measure just how much of a force Sanders might be in US politics — and in a Clinton White House, should she win — is how successful he is in getting his army of supporters to the polls to support her on Tuesday.

Latinos

Messina’s remarks about turnout among Latino voters signals something else to watch on election night: Is this the year that the Latino vote really comes through? In states across the country — California, Texas, New York, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Iowa — the Latino population has been on the rise. But that has not translated into power at the polls, despite concerted efforts by Democrats and Latino political organisations to turn out Latino voters.

If that changes this year, it could make a dramatic difference in swing states like Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Colorado.

“All of the early data is pointing to a record Latino turnout,” said Matt Barreto, a professor of political science at UCLA and an adviser on Latino issues to Hillary Clinton’s campaign. “In Florida, 30 per cent of early votes among Latinos are from new first-time voters, and Latino early voting is up by 173 per cent compared to 2012. There is no question that the Trump campaign has struck a serious nerve with Latinos.”

— New York Times News Service