It is rare that so many important global issues are balanced at a delicate point of change. There is an exciting sense that after several years of events spinning out of control, there is now a chance that rational thinking might retake its desired place at the heart of politics. But there is also a disturbing fear that if something is missed, disaster might follow.
That is why this year’s Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum is working under the catch all slogan of “The New Global Context”, which allows almost any of the bewildering variety of issues that need attention to fit into the agenda.
Some people are concentrating on the immediate crisis of the impending Greek election and the future of the Euro, with a desperate side-glance at how to end the underlying problem of Europe’s deep uncompetitiveness. European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi is not coming to Davos this year as he stays in his office managing the next round of quantitative easing, but we will be hearing from Germany’s Angela Merkel, Britain’s David Cameron, and France’s Francois Hollande. It will be interesting to see if they agree on anything other than the right to free speech and to insult but not harm whoever anyone wants!
Others are thinking hard about how to reconstitute and support Syria’s secular opposition, and how to build a new political process that can find an answer for that sad country. No one in the Arab world can ignore that call. At the same time many of those are also part of the coalition in fighting Daesh in Iraq and are desperately hoping that Prime Haider Al Abadi will come up with the inclusive and effective government that he has promised, otherwise the whole mess will restart again and again.
Many others are deep into the economics of the oil price: how low can it go and how long will it stay down. The answers have profound implications for the energy industry, but will also change the politics of Iran and other states that need a high price to continue as they have been doing for decades. If a prolonged low price is coming, it also offers a startling chance for many countries to stop their draining energy subsidies, but that would require more courage than seems to be around.
Others are looking at the challenge of pandemics, well aware that the human race is more at risk than is obvious. We escaped extinction from swine flu, and despite killing thousands of people the spread of Ebola may be stemmed, but this does not mean that success is guaranteed. The large number of humans and the inevitability of another pandemic catching us all unawares means that we need to be ready. And anyway, Ebola is very far from being stopped and some very brave doctors are still working very hard to keep us all safe.
Others in Europe are struggling with how the democracies of the west and centre of the continent can share boundaries with a vigorous and lawless Russia that is testing the military will of the democracies to defend the rule of law, and finding them gravely wanting. The people of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea and parts of east Ukraine have discovered that Vladimir Putin’s Russia is on the march again, and they have looked in vain to the West for support. Maybe a red line will be drawn, and maybe the people of central Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia may sleep more calmly at night. Maybe not.
In addition to these immediate issues, there are the perennial development topics that Davos covers so well: increasing productive employment, fostering good education, gender parity, ensuring food and water security, seeking to stop corruption, and wrestling with the consequences of gross economic inequality.
One of the co-chairs of this year’s Annual Meeting is Winnie Byanyima of Oxfam, who spoke about the dangers of the imminent landmark when 1 per cent of the human population will have more wealth and assets than the entire rest of the human race. Such inequality breeds dissent and political insecurity. Some of the discussion this week will about how much the wealthy 1 per cent will really need to stay wealthy and how much will the 99 per cent achieve their ambitions. Bill Gates will be at Davos and maybe he will be able to help guide that thinking.
