TV shipments into EMEA to increase despite economic gloom

Dubai: Research firm iSuppli Corp has trimmed its forecast for LCD and Plasma TV shipments into Europe, the Middle East and Africa due to the ongoing financial turmoil, but still anticipates growth.

iSuppli now forecasts regional LCD TV shipments will amount to 32.56 million units in 2008, an increase of 8.15 per cent from 30.10 million units in 2007 while plasma TVs will amount to 5.82 million units, an increase of 47 per cent compared to 3.96 million units in 2007.

"The current crisis is impacting spending in all markets, including LCD and plasma TVs. The continued impact of the recession and credit crunch in the United States and Europe and rising inflation in many markets will slow down sales growth for TVs in 2009 as well," Riddhi Patel, principal analyst, television systems for iSuppli, said.

iSuppli anticipates the fourth quarter of 2008 will be weak for TV sales compared to previous expectations.

"Before the recession hit, 2009 was expected to be a year when the TV market would grow substantially because of the large number of replacement purchases in the mature regions as well as in economically emerging nations," Patel said. "Moreover, the downturn had been expected to last only a few quarters, and was not believed to be as severe as it now appears."

iSuppli forecasts global LCDTV shipments will amount to 93.4 million units in 2008, down nearly six per cent from its previous prediction of 99 million. iSuppli also reduced its previous forecast of 124 million units for 2009 to 112.6 million units for the year.

Despite this more subdued outlook, worldwide LCD-TV shipments still will rise 18.9 per cent in 2008 and by 20.5 per cent in 2009.

It is expected that in 2010, the market will bounce back and the demand for LCD TVs will pick up.

The regional LCD TV market is expected to grow 21.31 per cent in 2010 compared to 18.18 per cent in 2009.

The demand for plasma TVs is expected to be weak as the year goes by. The plasma TV market will register its fastest growth this year, recording 47 per cent growth and in 2009 the market will register a negative 0.65 per cent growth.

In 2010, 5.69 million units are forecast to be shipped into EMEA, registering a negative growth of 1.58 per cent.

"LCD TV shipments will continue to rise due to strong consumer interest and declining Average Selling Prices (ASPs) for sets," Patel noted. "Furthermore, iSuppli expects the major brands' marketing and promotional efforts will fuel demand."

The first half of 2009 is expected to bring a slowdown as well, because most regions will continue to struggle due to the current financial environment. Conditions are expected to improve in the second half of 2009 because the mature regions will begin to show first signs of a recovery during the third quarter.

The value of LCD TV market will stand at $24.83 billion this year, a decrease of 6.91 per cent compared to $26.67 billion in 2007. The value is forecast to further erode in 2009, a decrease of 1.31 per cent to $24.55 billion.

The market will bounce back in 2010, registering a massive growth of 25.60 per cent to $30.83 billion.

In the plasma TV market, the value will rise 12.14 per cent to $5.64 billion this year compared to $5.03 billion in 2007. In 2009, the market will fall by around 19 per cent to $4.56 billion and in 2010 the market will fall by around 13 per cent in value to $4.01 billion. The demand for plasma TVs is expected to remain strong in Middle East and Africa than Europe.