The fallout from the failed push for Scottish independence has alerted UK asset management companies to the “destabilising” effect a UK referendum on EU membership would have on their businesses.

The Scottish vote triggered £1 billion of outflows from UK equity funds in the week before the referendum, and many Scotland-based financial groups were forced to consider shifting their headquarters south of the border in the event of a Yes vote.

The events have heightened fears for fund companies of an EU vote, with the expectation of even greater levels of investor anxiety. The vote could also have an impact on London’s ability to attract talent, putting its title as Europe’s financial capital in jeopardy.

Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU if his Conservative party wins next May’s election.

Martin Gilbert, chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, Europe’s largest fund house, said: “The analysis and contingency planning undertaken by financial companies ahead of the [Scottish] independence vote is arguably a timely dress rehearsal ahead of a potential UK-wide referendum on EU membership. An in-out vote would affect banks, insurers and asset managers throughout the UK.”

Ewen Cameron Watt, investment strategist at BlackRock, the world’s biggest fund house, added: “There is no precedent of any country leaving the EU in this way. Do we talk about it around our tables? Yes of course. This is important whether you are a US, European or British-owned business.”

Many in the industry have only started discussing the fallout from a possible UK exit from the EU — or “Brexit” — in the last two weeks after polls began showing the vote on the Scottish referendum was much closer that anticipated.

Dominic Johnson, chief executive of London fund house Somerset Capital, said: “If the build-up to a vote [on EU membership] was very close, that would be very destabilising for our industry. The uncertainty from [the Scottish referendum] would be multiplied by five.”

Nick Thomas, partner at Baillie Gifford, the Edinburgh fund house, agreed that the EU referendum has become a “big topic of conversation” at his company. Baillie Gifford plans to begin contingency planning for an EU referendum now that the Scottish vote is over.

A Brexit would also raise questions about the ability of UK-based fund groups to sell retail funds elsewhere in Europe.

Amin Rajan, chief executive of Create Research, the asset management consultancy, added: “The clamour for a referendum on EU membership is unlikely to be silenced by the Scottish result: quite the reverse.

“The UK fund industry can expect turbulence until the dust settles. Periodic flights of capital cannot be ruled out. The fund industry needs to state its position on EU withdrawal categorically.”

Some fund executives have begun to make their position on EU membership clear.

The chief executive of Standard Life Investments, Keith Skeoch, told FTfm last month: “From a purely financial market and fund management perspective, I would not like to see the UK leave Europe. There is too much infrastructure wrapped around [EU membership].”

But others remained confident about the prospects for the UK fund industry, regardless of whether an EU referendum takes place or its outcome.

Hendrik du Toit, chief executive of Investec Asset Management, the South African fund house, said: “The risk of Brexit remains [and] this is a big issue for the economy at large. It might be beneficial to have a large asset management centre on the doorstep of Europe that does not need to comply with every rule coming from Brussels.”

— Financial Times