Business | Economy
Polls, slowing economy will put brakes on Turkish reforms again
Turkey says it will push long-stalled reforms to join the EU now that a case to ban the ruling party is out of the way, but upcoming local elections and a slowing economy will lessen appetite for bold moves this year.
- Reuters
- Published: 22:59 September 12, 2008
Ankara: Turkey says it will push long-stalled reforms to join the EU now that a case to ban the ruling party is out of the way, but upcoming local elections and a slowing economy will lessen appetite for bold moves this year.
Ankara began accession talks with the European Union in 2005 but the pace of reforms has since slowed and the negotiations have inched forward at a snail's pace.
A top court in July narrowly voted against closing the AK Party for Islamist activities in a case that plunged the country into political crisis and hurt financial markets.
The AK Party has said tensions between the government and secularists consumed Turkey's political energy and is now vowing a fresh push of EU work when parliament re-opens in October.
Foreign Minister Ali Bab-acan, who is also Ankara's chief EU negotiator, will discuss the government's reform plans with EU foreign ministers in Brussels next Monday.
"We know very well what is expected from us and what we need to do anyway," he said in an interview. "We have every reason to push ahead with our reform agenda."
But local elections next March and a deteriorating economy will distract the government from launching changes that could reignite a standoff with the secularist elite, analysts said.
"The EU bid is of no interest to the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government right now. Priority of the Council of Ministers and the Prime Minister is local elections," veteran columnist Mehmet Ali Birand wrote this week.
"Until then, the cabinet does not want to touch anything to negatively affect the government," he said.
Scepticism
Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst from Eurasia Group, is also sceptical about the government's intentions to push harder on reforms.
Last week, the government published a 400-page document which spells out dates and plans for EU work, but Piccoli said it was all deja-vu.
"The government has little room for manoeuvre and the domestic situation does not allow the government to make bold reforms," he said.
Despite the court's ruling, political turmoil is far from over in Turkey, where the AK Party is engaged in a power struggle with a westernised elite, including judges and the powerful military.
Allegations of corruption linked to the government, which the AK Party denies, have galvanised the opposition, which is likely to use them as ammunition as municipal elections near.
Piccoli said the court's decision to fine the AK Party for undermining Turkey's secular principles has "put the party on probation", meaning it will be reluctant to tackle sensitive EU-mandated reforms such as more budget oversight of military spending and cultural rights for ethnic Kurds.
"European Union membership is no longer a vote-winning issue as it was in 2002 or 2007, and the government has more pressing issues now such as the economy."
An opinion poll taken in June for the German Marshall Fund of the United States and published this week showed only 26 per cent of Turks believe their country will ever join the EU.
Losing steam
After years of strong growth, Turkey's economy is losing steam amid a global slowdown and high energy prices.
With the economy expanding at its slowest rate in six years and rising inflation, analysts say the government is unlikely to spend time on reforms sought by Brussels, which are unpopular among ordinary Turks.
Parliament will discuss the 2009 budget in October, which analysts said will distract lawmakers from EU reforms.
Turkey has so far opened eight of the 35 chapters of reform work required for EU accession and is hoping to start a further two in the remaining months of 2008 - on the free movement of capital and audiovisual policy such as media licensing.
While Brussels urges Turkey to build a consensus for reform, the two main opposition parties last week refused to meet Babacan to discuss the government's new EU agenda, highlighting Ankara's acrimonious political climate.
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