Dubai: The better than expected US employment numbers for September, which saw the US economy introducing 103,000 jobs for the month, are likely to lead to a healthy outlook for the GCC region in the near term, according to industry experts.
The Gulf is the major exporter of crude to the US, and for the GCC, oil prices are a key indicator [of economic growth], says Giyas Gokkent, Chief Economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD).
"The current oil price [Dubai spot] stands at $101 per barrel. The region does quite well at this price point. So no negative numbers there. If the Eurozone crisis is contained, then presumably the world economy won't slow sharply, which would mean that oil prices would remain stable. In that case, the near-term outlook for the region looks good," Gokkent told Gulf News.
Commenting on the sentiment about the recession in the US being officially over, he said: "What has happened is that recession may be averted. Even though the numbers for September were better than expected, the US economy will presumably slow down somewhat in the fourth quarter."
Gokkent added that the American economy is still growing at the moment, but the pace of growth is slowing down. "So there is no recession right now, but fears of a recession."
According to yet another research, unemployment in the US is likely to stay high for a longer period. Standard Chartered Bank said in a recent report that the previous peak employment level in the country is "not likely to be reached until 2015".
"Unfortunately, using our forecasts for employment growth, the participation rate and population growth mean that unemployment is likely to stay far higher than current market expectations," the bank said.
