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Bush and Bernanke agree US recession is unlikely
The economy is in turmoil, yet President George W. Bush and Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke say the country will weather the storm. Neither sees a recession on the horizon.
- AP
- Published: 01:04 March 1, 2008
Washington: The economy is in turmoil, yet President George W. Bush and Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke say the country will weather the storm. Neither sees a recession on the horizon.
Both Bush and Bernanke are on the front lines of the government's efforts to right an economy that increasing numbers of economists fear is on the verge of its first recession since 2001, if it hasn't already fallen into one.
The housing market's collapse, a credit crisis and galloping energy prices are crimping spending and investing. Those are mighty punches to a teetering economy that nearly stalled at the end of last year.
Bush and Bernanke acknowledged the dangers on Thursday. But Bush, at a White House news conference, and Bernanke, in congressional testimony, seemed to strike the same hopeful note that the economy should be able to survive the fallout.
"I don't think we're headed to a recession, but no question we're in a slowdown," Bush said.
The Federal Reserve is not forecasting a recession. It does predict slow growth for this year as well as higher unemployment.
"I realise that my testimony wasn't the most cheerful thing you'll hear today... but I do very much believe that the US economy will return to a strong growth path with price stability," Bernanke told the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.
It was the US central bank chief's second day in a row in Congress discussing the economy.
Meanwhile, oil prices set a new record of $102.59 a barrel on Thursday. Pump prices rose closer to record territory above $3 per gallon (80 cents a litre), with the prospect of $4 ($1.05 a litre) gasoline when the busy summer driving season arrives.
"That's interesting. I hadn't heard that. ... I know it's high now," Bush said during reporters' questioning about $4 a gallon gas.
Those high energy prices are a double-edged sword for the economy: They are spreading inflation and restraining economic growth because people clobbered by big bills to fill up their gas tanks and heat their homes are cutting back spending elsewhere.
Fears have grown that the country could come under the grip of stagflation, when stagnant growth is combined with rising inflation, for the first time in decades.
Bernanke rejected the notion. "I don't anticipate stagflation," he said. "I don't think we're anywhere near the situation that prevailed in the 1970s."
Bernanke said he expects inflation to calm down.
For now, he said, the biggest risk is the weakening economy.
To that end, Bernanke signalled that the Fed stands ready to lower a key interest rate again to bolster the economy.
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