The festive season is in full swing, and with it comes a jam-packed Premier League schedule - one that could play a pivotal role in determining where the trophy will be heading on May 25, 2025.
While the season won’t officially hit its halfway mark until Brentford take on Arsenal on New Year’s Day, history has shown that the team sitting top on Christmas Day often sets the pace for the title race.
For Liverpool fans, this year’s festivities might come with an extra treat, as Arne Slot’s side currently enjoy a commanding nine-point lead at the summit.
The team leading the league on December 25 has gone on to lift the trophy in 10 of the last 14 seasons. Interestingly, Liverpool have featured prominently in the exceptions.
In 2018/19, 2019/20, and 2020/21, the Reds held the Christmas top spot but only managed to clinch the title in 2019/20. In 2020/21, they squandered an eight-point Christmas lead.
However, should Liverpool maintain, or extend, their nine-point advantage until December 25, it would position them as firm favourites to claim just their second Premier League crown.
Only twice in history have teams overcome larger deficits to win the league: Manchester United famously clawed back a 10-point gap on Newcastle in 1995/96, while Arsenal overturned a 13-point deficit to overtake United two seasons later.
Liverpool’s lead at Christmas will be determined by four critical Premier League gameweeks, beginning with tonight’s challenging visit to St James’ Park.
Despite a rocky end to November - losing at home to West Ham and conceding a last-minute equaliser against Crystal Palace - Newcastle remain formidable on their own turf.
Before the West Ham loss, Eddie Howe’s men had tasted defeat in just one of their last 15 home games, a run that included wins over Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham (twice), along with a draw against Manchester City.
Liverpool’s blistering form makes them favourites to claim another three points, especially given their recent dominance at St James’ Park with three straight wins. However, under the floodlights and with Newcastle’s fervent supporters behind them, you can never fully count out the Magpies.
Elsewhere, Arsenal and Chelsea - both nine points adrift of the leaders - face very different challenges. Arsenal host a reinvigorated Manchester United under Ruben Amorim, a far sterner test than it might have been weeks ago. Even so, the Gunners will fancy their chances of staying in the hunt. Meanwhile, Chelsea are expected to comfortably dispatch struggling Southampton at Stamford Bridge.
The weekend brings Liverpool a Merseyside Derby against Everton. While it seems a straightforward task on paper, Goodison Park has been a minefield for the Reds in recent years.
Liverpool have managed just one Premier League win there since 2017, and their last visit ended in a humbling 2-0 defeat earlier this year. For Everton, this derby is more than a game - it’s their cup final. Expect a fierce battle with local pride and bragging rights at stake.
Arsenal and Chelsea also face tricky outings, with Chelsea heading to Tottenham and Arsenal traveling to Craven Cottage for a London Derby against Fulham.
The following weekend sees Arsenal host Everton, Chelsea face Brentford at home and Liverpool welcome Fulham to Anfield. If the formbook holds true, all three sides should secure wins.
The final fixtures before Christmas are just as intriguing. Arsenal visit Crystal Palace, Chelsea travel to Everton and Liverpool face a stern test away to Tottenham. While Arsenal and Chelsea will back themselves to collect three points, Liverpool’s trip to North London could be pivotal.
Should Liverpool navigate this daunting stretch unscathed, you might as well engrave their name on the trophy. But if they falter - and Arsenal or Chelsea close the gap to within six points - the title race could be set for a thrilling second act.
History might favour Liverpool, who have accumulated more Premier League points in December than any other side - an astonishing 348 from 178 games - but December is rarely predictable, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
