Why EV sales are set to skyrocket in 2025

More countries are joining the electric vehicle (EV) “tipping point”.

What does that mean?

A tipping point occurs when a new technology gains enough momentum to displace its predecessor.

With EVs, a 5 per cent market share is considered a benchmark for kickstarting an industry disruption.

Market forces and government policies are key enablers.

A few examples: In November, India slashed tax on EV to 5 per cent, from 12 per cent. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, announced a mandate requiring 5 per cent of parking spaces to be designated for EVs.

In Norway, nearly 90 per cent of vehicles sold in 2024 were EVs. Pakistan also vowed to shift to 30 per cent EVs by 2030.

In Türkiye, while total vehicle sales rose only 0.5 per cent, EV sales jumped 45.9 per cent in 2024, equivalent to more than 105,000 units, as per the Automotive Distributors’ and Mobility Association (ODMD).

The result: market share of EVs rose from 7.5 per cent in 2023 to 10.7 per cent in 2024, according to the industry group.

In the US, EV sales rose 12 per cent in Q4 2024, pushing the annual total to 1.3 million units, or 8 per cent of 15.9 million total auto sales for the year, as per Cox Automotive.

EV sales in Thailand hit 14 per cent of the car market. The Philippines has extended zero tariffs for EVs until 2028.

Here's the clincher: At least 31 countries have already achieved the 5 per cent threshold for annual EV sales. (See list below)

There's gotta be something there.

Record volume

Virta Global projected 17 million in car sales in 2024, of which EVs took 19.6 per cent market share, a record. 

In 2025, EV sales are set to "skyrocket", according to Nasdaq.

By December 2025, global EV sales are expected to jump by another 30 per cent, as per S&P Mobility.

In 2023, global EV sales surpassed 14 million units, a dramatic increase from just 4 per cent in 2020, as per BloombergNEF’s report.

In 2025, Nasdaq forecasts that the total EV share of light-vehicle sales worldwide will hit 22.6 percent.

By 2030, Bloomberg predicts that EVs could account for over 50 per cent of global car sales, thanks to battery costs and policy drivers.

Further out, the firm sees the market share for EVs surging to 69.5 percent in 2035.

Scaling up mobility

Tesla, based in Texas, sold 1.79 million electric vehicles in 2024. BYD, based in Shenzhen, sold more than 4.2 million “new energy vehicles” (which include EVs and hybrids), representing a 41.07 per cent jump from 2023. 

Furthermore, S&P Mobility predicts that EV sales will rocket past the “tipping point” in 2025, ushering in global revolution in mobility and energy.

This point will only accelerate, driven by tech, consumer demand, and policy: it signals a paradigm shift in global transportation.

A number of drivers are behind this shift:

Battery cost

The battery cost curve is driven not just by supply-and-demand but also by economies of scale, in particular by Wright's Law (progressive drop in unit price for every doubling of production volume).

The result: cost keeps coming down. Bloomberg data shows that the average price of lithium-ion batteries has plunged by 89 per cent since 2010.

It hit $132 per kilowatt-hour in 2023, and slid further to $112/kWh in 2024, as per Statista. When it his the $100/kWh mark, industry pundits say its "game over", i.e. that EVs will be cost-competitive with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, even without subsidies.

By 2026, the average battery pack prices are projected to drop further to $82 per kWh – from $250 per kWh in 2016 – a 67 per cent drop in price. 

Innovations

TechCrunch highlights innovations like solid-state batteries, sodium-ion and lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry – which promise longer lifespans, faster charging, and lower production costs. 

These advancements are reducing one of the most significant barriers to widespread EV adoption: affordability.

Policy

Governments worldwide are helping accelerate the transition to EVs. Countries such as Norway, where 90 per cent of new car sales are electric, have led the charge with aggressive incentives, including tax breaks and free public charging.

The EU has committed to phasing out the sale of ICE vehicles by 2035, while the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offers $7,500 tax credits for qualifying EVs.

The China factor

BloombergNEF points out that China, the world’s largest EV maker and car market, is setting the standard with domestic manufacturing dominance, policy (subsidies) and infrastructure expansion. 

China has made considerable investments in the EVs, leading in patents. In 2024, it had more than 50 per cent of the world’s EV fleet, underscoring its critical role in the global transition.

The road ahead

Challenges remain – including infrastructure, ethical sourcing of battery minerals and consumer acceptance.

Investments in charging infrastructure

Meanwhile, global investments in public charging stations are growing rapidly, with 2.7 million chargers deployed worldwide in 2023, according to BloombergNEF. 

Sustainable mining practices for battery materials is another challenge.

With a confluence of innovation, favourable economics, and supportive policies, EVs are poised to dominate global car markets.

The global transition to electric mobility is not just a technological revolution, it spans industries, including transport, energy and AI.

The EV tipping point is undeniably here: The question is no longer if EVs will take over but how quickly. 

List of Countries and EV Sales

[Electric vehicles (EVs) have surpassed the 5% threshold of new car sales in the following countries. List of countries and EV market share]

Sources: BloombergNEF | Statista | Alternative Fuels Observatory | OECD | PwC | CarEdge