Will BRICS change the world order?

TThere is no doubt about the fact that economic clout is not always enough to make a superpower. Japan, for instance, is known to be a giant economic power in the world arena. It used to be the second greatest economic producer in terms of GDP after the US. Now it ranks third after the European Union. However, it is a midget politically. It hardly has a big say in world affairs. In other words, it usually toes the western political line, namely because it is still constrained by Second World War treaties and capitulation terms after it lost the war against America and its allies.

The same applies to Germany, which, although it used to rank third in terms of GDP, is politically crippled. It is far less effective on the world political arena than Britain and France for the same reason. Add to that of course the fact that Britain and France are nuclear powers and permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

However, the world order is no longer controlled by the treaties of the Second World War. It is true that the US and its allies have managed to keep the two economic giants, Japan and Germany, at bay until now, both politically and militarily, but they can hardly control the new economic powers with the legacy of the past.

It is true that the US and Europe are still controlling world politics, including the UN Security Council, but they have started facing the new and fast-growing economic powers such as China, which used to keep a low profile politically because it was not economically powerful enough. However, in the last few years, China has gradually started showing its political muscle as it is making major headways economically. It has the highest growth ratio, which reached 13 per cent a couple of years ago, whereas the growth ratio in the US and Eurozone has hardly managed to reach two-and-a-half per cent. This has recently made China the third most powerful economic power worldwide, after the US and the European Union (EU). Add to that the fact that China is all set to be, by the end of the decade, the master of the world economically. By then, even the English language, which has dominated the last century, is going to lose its clout as it is going to be replaced by the Chinese language as the No 1 in the world.

No wonder, China has already started blackmailing the Americans economically and financially.

Russia, in its turn, is making a hell of a lot of noise on the world political arena. It has all of a sudden become the main player in the negotiations over the Syrian crisis. Moscow is trying hard to come back to world politics by using its status at the UN to the full. We should also mention the fact that Russia is a huge nuclear power and an arms manufacturer. Even economically, the Russians are doing very well. They are predicted to take the place occupied by traditional world economic powers such as Japan and Germany to become one of the most powerful economically.

No less promising are the powers, which until recently, used to be clubbed as “Third World” countries. It is quite surprising to know, for instance, that Brazil, which was notorious for its poverty and social misery, has replaced Britain as the sixth most powerful nation economically. What makes Brazil even more powerful is that it has become an important arms producer.

Another impoverished nation India, which used to be described as the jewel in the British Empire’s crown, has begun to compete ever so vehemently economically. It is expected that by the end of the decade, India will replace France as the fifth most powerful economy in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund. India is also known to be a nuclear power.

In brief, last year, the balance tipped in favour of the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, or what has come to be known as the “Brics” countries, which now represent about 40 per cent of world population and about the same ratio of cash reserves. The combined GDP of Brics is about $14 trillion (Dh51.49 trillion).

And what makes the Brics group even more promising is that China and India, for instance, have access to great resources of raw material, power and agricultural material in Russia, Brazil and South Africa. In return, the Chinese offer cheaper commodities.

However, the political co-ordination could be the most salient feature of Brics, as the countries in question are pressing hard for a new multi-polar world order. It is true they have not been able to speak with one voice yet, but sooner or later they will, when their interests become more entwined.

Meanwhile, Brazil, India and South Africa are seeking permanent membership of the UN Security Council.

There is no doubt at all that were it not for Brics, particularly Russia and China, the West would have been more aggressive as far as resolving the Syrian crisis is concerned. China and Russia have used the veto twice in a matter of weeks to forestall resolutions punishing Syria. Obviously, it may take a long while before Brics becomes a real competitor to the western bloc, but the day will come sooner or later when this group will have a substantial say in the way the world is managed and controlled.

Dr Faisal Al Qasim is a Syrian journalist based in Doha.