Will a Hezbollah win isolate Lebanon?

In less than a week, there is a chance that the Lebanese people could open their eyes to find their country in the hands of Hezbollah partnered with Nabih Berri's Amal and General Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement Party.

Together they form the March 8 bloc, which, you will remember, held the country to a crippling ransom with a year-long tent city in downtown Beirut. This was dismantled last summer, once March 8 managed to extract 11 government seats and, thus, power of veto.

On June 7, Lebanon goes to the polls. If the outcome hands the Hezbollah alliance even a small majority, as some polls suggest, this country of four million may be in for turbulent times - both from a national and international perspective.

Lebanon prides itself on its democracy albeit flawed by a confessional system inherited from the French that mandates a Sunni Prime Minister, a Christian President and a Shiite Parliamentary Speaker. But what kind of democracy can it be when one party - Hezbollah - possesses a large and sophisticated private army unanswerable to the government that is funded and trained by a foreign power?

Moreover, Hezbollah's 1985 manifesto pledges loyalty to Ayatollah Khomeini and to the goal of Lebanon becoming an Islamic state, although, when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah speaks to the public at large, he professes his organisation is Lebanese first and foremost.

Nasrallah swore that his fighters would never turn their guns on their own people. Yet, on May 7, 2008, he violated this promise by giving them the order to storm offices belonging to the March 14 Sa'ad Hariri-led alliance when thousands were driven from their homes at gunpoint, resulting in 87 deaths and 250 injuries.

On May 15 this year, Nasrallah spoke to graduating students glorifying those tragic events, which he claims averted civil war. In reality, they risked triggering one. The implication behind the Hezbollah leader's celebration of May 7 is that if things do not go his way, he will not hesitate to use the same intimidating tactics again.

The International Lebanese Committee for the Implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 (ILC) has penned a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon calling for the Security Council to investigate Nasrallah's admission that "he gave the order to attack, murder and destroy innocent people of Beirut and the Shouf Mountains of Lebanon on that fatal day&"

The Kuwaiti Arabic-Language daily Al Seyassah has reported that the ILC's call for an independent investigation committee is supported by French, British and US parliamentarians, including Senator John Kerry.

Recently, the German weekly Der Spiegal reported a new accusation against Hezbollah, saying that the UN Commission set up to investigate the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri now has evidence that Hezbollah was behind the February 14, 2005, car bomb. Nasrallah has dismissed this as a plot to influence the June 7 ballot.

March 8 is currently campaigning under the slogan "The Third Republic" which means constitutional change, say its spokespersons.

Journalist Emile Khoury sees something more sinister. He believes the slogan umbrellas "a hidden agenda" to bring about "a new tripartite division of power between the Shiite, Sunni and Christian communities".

Former Lebanese President Ameen Gemayel has another interpretation. The "Third Republic" would be "a republic of Hezbollah, its cadres, and what they will bring to the country - a republic of Hezbollah's weapons," he said.

On Friday, Nasrallah told his supporters that if March 8 achieves electoral victory, he will strengthen the Lebanese Army with weapons. In reality, he would also control it. In that event, Lebanon risks being punished by the international community, as six Western countries - including the US - has designated Hezbollah "a terrorist organisation".

US Vice-President Joe Biden has warned that relations between Lebanon and the US would suffer if Hezbollah gains a majority. A precedent is the way the Palestinians were abandoned after their free and fair elections in 2005 that proved to be a victory for Hamas.

As a precursor, perhaps, the US Treasury Department said it plans to freeze the assets of two important financial contributors to Hezbollah. Washington has also asked its European allies to consider designating Hezbollah's political wing "terrorist" rather than distinguishing between Hezbollah departments, which share the same boss and the same agenda.

A Hezbollah win could also strain Lebanon's relations with Saudi Arabia, which backs the March 14 coalition, as well as Egypt that has accused Hezbollah of planning attacks and smuggling arms to Hamas on its soil.

Nasrallah is a smooth-talker who wants to hypnotise Lebanese people into believing Hezbollah can be all things to all people: a patriotic pluralistic political party, a freedom-fighting guerrilla group, and a social welfare organisation, even as its dedication to Ayatollah Khomeini is evidenced by posters throughout Hezbollah strongholds.

Will they be convinced? This time next week, we'll know the answer.

Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com Some comments may be considered for publication.