Trump taking on Trudeau: A prelude to Canada’s Trump moment?

By openly deriding of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the “governor” of the United States’ 51st state and threatening punitive tariffs, Donald Trump is not only undermining an ally but also destabilising Canada’s political unity.

His aggressive approach is exacerbating domestic political turmoil in Canada and reshaping its political landscape, potentially strengthening Trudeau’s conservative opponents and paving the way for a Trump-like figure in Canadian politics.

This intervention serves as a cautionary tale for other nations, underscoring the risks of political upheaval in the face of Trump’s relentless economic nationalism.

Trudeau, already battling sagging poll numbers and internal dissent, faces mounting challenges that have only been exacerbated by Trump’s threats of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods.

The resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Trudeau’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, delivered a symbolic and substantive blow to his leadership. Her parting critique accused Trudeau of ignoring fiscal prudence at a time when Canada needs to brace for economic confrontation with its largest trading partner.

Freeland’s departure highlights Trudeau’s precarious position. Polls consistently show his Liberal Party trailing the Conservatives by 20 points. Pressure is mounting for Trudeau to step down or risk being toppled in a confidence vote that could trigger an early election. The cabinet reshuffle he executed in December may offer a brief reprieve but has not quelled doubts about his ability to navigate this crisis.

Trump’s intimidation tactics have deepened rifts within Trudeau’s cabinet and between provincial leaders, making it harder for Canada to present a unified front. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith plans to attend Trump’s second inauguration in January, aiming to meet US officials and promote Alberta’s energy sector.

On the other hand, Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s warning about halting energy exports to the US reveals the cracks in Canada’s approach to managing Trump’s threats.

Trump’s divide-and-conquer approach mirrors his domestic strategy, pitting factions against one another to maximise his leverage. For Trump, trade is a zero-sum game where even close allies are adversaries to be subdued.

While Trudeau struggles to maintain control, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, has seized the moment. His populist rhetoric, sharp attacks on Trudeau, and adoption of slogans like “Axe the Tax” and “Justinflation” echo Trump’s playbook.

Poilievre has capitalised on public frustration, presenting himself as a “can-do” alternative to Trudeau’s perceived weakness. Polls suggest he’s on track to secure a majority government in the next election.

Like Trump, Poilievre thrives on polarising issues and frames himself as a champion of “ordinary Canadians” against the elite. He has used wedge issues — such as opposing carbon taxes and invoking nationalist themes — to rally his base.

His past support for the 2022 trucker protests against vaccine mandates, a movement laced with Trump-style populism, underscores his ability to tap into discontent.

Poilievre’s rise signals a potential shift in Canada’s political culture. Traditionally known for moderation and consensus, Canadian politics may now be tilting toward the divisive, personality-driven style exemplified by Trump. As economic and political pressures mount, voters disillusioned with Trudeau’s leadership may turn to Poilievre as a populist saviour.

Trump’s threats of a tariff war with Canada have far-reaching implications. The US and Canada share one of the world’s most integrated trading relationships, with 75% of Canadian exports heading south of the border. A 25% tariff could devastate Canada’s economy, triggering job losses and recession while straining bilateral relations.

Trump’s demand that Canada invest more in border security and crack down on fentanyl smuggling has already led Ottawa to pledge hundreds of millions of dollars for increased border measures. However, such concessions may only embolden Trump to demand more. The looming renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement offers another arena for Trump to extract concessions, further destabilising Canada’s economy.

For Canadian leaders, the stakes couldn’t be higher. A trade war would not only hurt Canadian workers but also disrupt supply chains deeply intertwined with the US economy. The repercussions would be felt on both sides of the border, but Canada’s smaller economy would bear the brunt.

Trump’s meddling in Canadian politics is a notice to other nations. His contempt for traditional alliances and his transactional approach to foreign policy make him an impulsive partner. Countries like France, Germany, and South Korea, already grappling with internal divisions, may also find themselves targets of Trump’s belligerence.

In Europe, where leaders like Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz face political turmoil, Trump’s tactics could create divisions among EU members. In the Asia-Pacific, his focus on economic nationalism could disrupt supply chains and alliances. The message is clear: no ally is immune from Trump’s “America First” agenda.

Trump’s intervention could trigger a significant political shift in Canada. Trudeau’s visit to Mar-a-Lago following Trump’s reelection has proven ineffective in mitigating the fallout. The Liberals now face an uphill battle to rebuild public trust, while Poilievre’s populist movement continues to gain momentum.

Should Trudeau step down, his successor will inherit a fractured party and a country struggling with economic uncertainty.