Trump's second term could rewrite the global order

The world is holding its breath as few days separate us from 20 January when Donald Trump, the 47th president of the United States, will be sworn in to serve a second term in office. There are plenty of reasons for world leaders to be worried.

Trump’s first term (2016-2021) was accurate to the man and his maverick campaign tirades and threats. But his promise to “Make America Great Again” hit unexpected turbulence: infightings among his top aides, historic impeachment motions by Congress, and the Covid-19 epidemic.

Still, Trump was able to deliver on a few of his promises. He appointed conservative judges to the Supreme Court and Federal Circuit courts, pushing America further to the right on divisive issues such as abortion, universal health care, illegal immigration, cutting corporate taxes, and deregulation across the board. Domestically, he had hoped to achieve much more.

On the international level, Trump was able to break with bi-partisan policy on the Israel-Arab conflict. He recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moved the embassy there, and approved the illegal annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights. He delivered a peace plan to the Palestinians, dubbed the “Deal of the Century”, but the Palestinian leadership rejected that.

On the other hand, his most important achievement was launching the Abraham Accords, which brought a state of peace between two Arab countries and Israel, one he is now ready to expand during his second term.

His withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal to strike that achievement from Barack Obama’s legacy was probably a hasty and ill-thought decision. In the absence of an alternative, Iran used the hiatus to accelerate its uranium enrichment to unprecedented levels with little international oversight.

Those close to Trump say he has learnt the lessons from his first term. He has surrounded himself with staunch allies who share his most audacious campaign goals, whether domestically or abroad. Trump had promised to “drain the swamp,” a euphemism for a corrupt and bureaucratic Washington DC, back in 2016.

They say he wants to blow up the entire structure and rebuild it again. Whether on illegal immigration, where he vowed to deport millions, or on abolishing federal departments such as education and others, Trump will push forward on his first in office with the most controversial agenda since the birth of the republic.

With Congress being in control of the Republicans, Trump will face little opposition until late 2026 when lawmakers face the midterm elections. How Americans will feel about his first two years in office remains to be seen.

Trump says he is not backing down from imposing hefty tariffs on imports, not only from China but from allies such as Canada and the EU. Economists and businesses are divided over the veracity of such a move and how a potential global trade war can bring down the current model.

Trump had promised to end the war in Ukraine on day one of his term. Observers believe that he will force the Ukrainians to accept a humiliating territorial compromise in favour of the Russians. Such a move will divide Europe even further, especially because of its dependence on the US for its defence through Nato and because a growing number of EU members are veering to the far right as they adopt the populist model instilled by Trump.

For the region, Trump will face some challenges. He has warned that the war in Gaza must end before he assumes office and that Hamas must surrender all remaining Israeli hostages. But so far, Netanyahu has done his best to deny Joe Biden credit for ending a war that has polarised the world, weakened the international system of law and order, and brought Israel before the highest world court as a defendant accused of carrying out a genocide in Gaza.

Another immediate challenge for Trump will be Iran — a weakened but still dangerous one. Netanyahu and his partners want to cash in on their recent geopolitical gains by urging Trump to deal a military blow to Iran and bring the regime down. That is a dangerous calculus for the region and the world. Yes, Iran has lost key allies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, but it remains a major regional player.

A second Trump term will be fraught with challenges and risks for America and the rest of the world. Still, Trump remains essentially an isolationist politician whose primary concern is to focus on rebuilding a broken America.

He knows the US cannot waste time and money in endless wars. His approach to the unfolding crisis will be interesting to watch. He is looking for a lasting legacy that will overwrite the plunders of his first term. That is the most consequential goal for him.

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.