Never write off a politician: AAP's nine lives remain

In India, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) pulled off miraculous victories in the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections in December 2023 and the Maharashtra assembly elections in November 2024. It was expected to lose both these elections due to anti-incumbency and yet won both of them handsomely with election-eve direct cash transfer schemes for women. .The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government in Delhi could have done the same. In fact, they wanted to. They announced they would transfer ₹1000 per month to poor women in Delhi a few months before the election. And yet, bureaucrats and their own finance ministry raised objections to the plans to raise debt to finance the scheme. .This is only one of countless examples where the AAP government in Delhi was a government which had responsibility without power. Delhi has always been half-state and half-union territory, but in recent years, it was even more disempowered than it used to be. A Supreme Court judgement making Delhi bureaucrats answerable to the elected government was overturned by the central government through a law. .Can AAP survive the political tempest in India?.The result was that the AAP government couldn’t really do much for anyone. In the second term, they ruled with their hands tied, sometimes literally when the top leaders including the chief minister, were imprisoned. They had to release videos of their ministers begging bureaucrats to do the smallest of things. .In the election campaign, when their candidates went around asking for votes, voters complained of unkept promises, the candidates said they tried to get it done but the Lt Governor wouldn’t sign the file. Voters then asked back why they shouldn’t vote for the BJP to get their work done. .This was the main and, this writer would argue, the only reason why they lost the election. Allegations of corruption and the lavish renovation of the chief minister’s residence didn’t really have appeal beyond the core voters of the BJP. For the swing voter, it was the pause in governance that made them switch. .Arvind Kejriwal: The common man who built a palace.A respectable defeat .Despite having no real power to govern, it is remarkable that the AAP is only 3 per cent points behind the BJP-led NDA. They won 22/70 seats, which is more than what the BJP and the Congress won together in the last two elections. .After two consecutive terms, many popular leaders become unpopular even in states where they have full power — a recent example being that of KCR in Telangana. People get fatigued of the same faces, the same political elite with the same cronies, the same old speeches and promises. If nothing else they want a fresh cabinet. .It is therefore an achievement for the AAP to have been in power in Delhi for 10 years when their powers were curbed day after day and the leadership was put in jail for months. .Given how respectable the defeat has been, it is surprising to see how the Congress, the BJP, the media and the political chattering classes are all declaring this defeat as the formal demise of the AAP. .Yes the AAP also happens to have a government in Punjab, but the pundits have decided it’s not going to last long now. They have already concluded on AAP’s behalf that Arvind Kejriwal is going to appoint himself as the chief minister of Punjab and cause a rebellion in his own party. Even if the Bhagwant Mann government lasts, there seems to be a consensus that a weak Congress, a half-dead Akali Dal or a non-starter Punjab BJP will win the next assembly election in Punjab in 2027. .Why AAP needs to lose Delhi for its own good.A cat has nine lives .There’s this adage in Indian politics — never write off a politician. The moment a politician’s career is declared over is when he/she starts scripting a comeback. .Today’s dominant BJP won only 2 seats in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections. Indira Gandhi was humiliated by voters in 1977 and brought back to power just three years later. The Congress party was declared history very recently but in 2024, showed it was the default opposition that would rise anyway when the BJP declines. .We see such extremes often in south India, where parties look like they’re finished when they lose and five years later they’re back as if they had never gone away. .Arvind Kejriwal has been freed of an impossible situation in Delhi. This is a blessing in disguise. He had anyway diminished himself in 2013 by becoming Delhi chief minister after leading a national movement. From then on, he has made endless political mistakes. .Nothing is as humbling as defeat. Destiny is giving the AAP a chance to reflect on their mistakes, to replace their hubris with humility, to go back to the masses and script a revival. Failure is a great teacher..Shivam Vij is a journalist and political commentator based in New Delhi. He tweets as @DilliDurAst, the handle means ‘Delhi is still far’