Iran's choice must be respected

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is here to stay. No doubt his re-election has been an immense disappointment to a section of Iran's youth hungry for reforms and most Iranians living abroad, while Western countries would definitely have preferred another outcome.

Opposition protesters engaged in throwing rocks and setting fire to government buildings harbour suspicions that the vote was somehow rigged, but without hard evidence they, along with rival candidate Mir Hussain Mousavi, should bite the bullet.

"I'm warning I will not surrender to this dangerous charade. The results will jeopardise the pillars of the Islamic republic and establish tyranny," Mousavi said. Word has it that Mousavi is now under house arrest. If this is true, then his incarceration and Ahmadinejad's refusal to guarantee his safety only adds grist to Mousavi's mill.

The fact that Iran is blocking media coverage of the protests also erodes the vote's democratic credentials. Ahmadinejad has likened the demonstrators to football hooligans angered when their team loses a match.

For now, the American government is adopting a 'wait and see' stance. US Vice President Joe Biden told reporters that there are "real doubts" as to whether the ballot was free and fair, but he has conceded that his country will have to "accept" Ahmadinajad's win.

Washington is keen to "investigate", but that sounds like pie in the sky. And, in any case, the US has neither influence within Iran nor the right to interfere in the democratic process of a country it terms an enemy.

Having witnessed the massive supportive rallies Ahmadinejad regularly inspires, I personally believe there is a good chance he won another presidential term fair and square.

Not everyone in Iran is clamouring for a more liberal way of life or a leader who is tilted towards the West. Although it is true that many Iranians are dissatisfied with the economy, at the same time, they champion Ahmadinejad as a simple devout man, a hero of the revolution and a true nationalist.

Moreover, many of the poorer members of society identify strongly with him. He is also said to retain the military's loyalty as well as that of the Interior Ministry.

His close relationship with the interior minister is one of the reasons his detractors are crying foul as the Interior Ministry was responsible for organising and monitoring the ballot.

Another is the large discrepancy between pre-election poll predictions of a tight race and Ahmadinejad's landslide 65 per cent victory.

But whether he still retains the backing of the clerics, thought to be the real power in Iran, is unknown, as in the run-up to the vote Ahmadinejad was criticised by religious authorities for slandering opposition candidates.

However, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has since called upon the country to "support and aid him, as this is a divine test for us all".

Once the dust has settled, Ahmadinejad will likely be more powerful than ever before. Pundits are already projecting that the news doesn't bode well for any future US-Iranian détente, as he has sworn to remain firm on the principle of Iran's right to nuclear energy.

Nevertheless, US President Barack Obama says he will continue to reach out to Iran. But whether his Iranian counterpart will respond favourably to his overtures has yet to be seen.

There is little doubt that a win for Mousavi would have made Obama's task easier. Some commentators believe that he delayed initiating his promised direct unconditional talks with Iran in the hope that Ahmadinejad would soon be out of the picture.

Obama would certainly suffer some unease about sitting down with someone who has repeatedly questioned the Holocaust. If the negative opinions of young American Jews vis-à-vis Obama's outreach to the Muslim world captured on a viral video are anything to go by, any future face-to-face meeting between Obama and Ahmadinejad will go down like a lead balloon among US Jewry.

Alluding to Obama's diplomatic efforts towards Iran, Israeli Vice President Silvan Shalom said the election's outcome was a "slap in the face of those who believed Iran was built for real dialogue with the free world and would halt its nuclear programme".

But as Amos Harel writing in Haaretz eloquently explains, from an Israeli perspective "the victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is actually preferable.

Not only because 'better the devil you know', but because the victory of the pro-reform candidate will paste an attractive mask on the face of Iranian nuclear ambitions".

Unless it can be proved that the election was not fair, the world should accept the will of the Iranian electorate, who have chosen the person to lead them over the coming four years.

That decision should be respected in the same way that Israel's choice of a hard-line right-winger was. Those with an axe to grind can make as much noise as they like, but that won't change the status quo. Like him or loathe him, the world will just have to learn to live with Ahmadinejad.

Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com. Some comments may be considered for publication.

While I generally enjoy reading Ms. Heard's articles and find them genuinely enlightening, I would like to ask her what she thinks now that HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS of Iranians are out on the streets of Iran protesting over the "election" and some are dying for their efforts. I certainly hope that she is reconsidering her initial assessment that "there is a good chance he (Ahmadinejad) won another presidential term fair and square." From All events unfolding in Iran since the election I really think that this was not the case.
Julie Amiri
Dubai,UAE
Posted: June 16, 2009, 09:23