India must stop tiptoeing around Trump’s tariff threats

We always knew Donald Trump was eccentric — a president who upended geopolitics through a whimsical tariff policy that has now become a tool for coercion and blackmail. He has in the course of the last six months, managed to alienate key US allies while disrupting the world economy and the global trading order. And now, he has dealt a severe blow to the US relationship with India, a relationship that has been solid, with bipartisan support despite some differences over the years.

By announcing a 25 percent tariff on India along with unspecified “penalties” for India’s purchase of weapons and oil from Russia, and describing India’s economy as “dead”, Trump has taken his bullying to a new level - threatening India for pursuing an independent foreign policy. Some spin doctors in India insist this dramatic announcement is yet another negotiating tool that Trump is employing to get the kind of trade deal that he wants. But by targeting India’s relationship with Russia, he has upped the ante and seems to be giving India a warning to make a geopolitical choice. Soon afterwards, the US State Department announced sanctions against 6 Indian companies for trading with Iran’s petroleum sector while Trump came back on social media to say the US had struck a deal with Pakistan to help develop it’s oil reserves. To add salt to India’s wounds, he said: “Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling oil to India someday”!

Diplomacy is built on mutual respect and Donald Trump has shown he has none, especially for America’s closest friends. He wants a trade deal that opens up Indian agriculture to American products, a move that would be politically suicidal for any Indian government. India has so far stood its ground but the talks ahead are only going to get tougher. The Indian government’s initial response to Trump’s latest tariff move was meek, polite and muddled in bureaucratic language. In other words, it said nothing. If there is one life lesson that is universal it is that you have to stand up to bullies. If you show any weakness, the bully will keep coming after you. The time for being polite is over. India needs to take a public stand.

This is also a lesson for Indian diplomacy under the Modi regime which was celebrating Trump’s return to the White House, with Prime Minister Modi constantly describing the US President as “my friend”. Trump is nobody’s friend. His relationships are purely transactional. But he seems to think the whole world must revolve around making America great again. Modi was among the first world leaders to visit Washington in February soon after Trump came back to the Oval Office. Despite Trump’s repeated assertions of brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, Modi has not called Trump out by name though he has denied that any world leader forced the hostilities to stop.

It is true that diplomacy is also about pragmatism, about maintaining cooler heads in tough times. But Donald Trump has made it clear that he has no respect for India’s positions. It is also true that Trump’s tariffs have given India an opportunity to revisit its own highly protectionist policies that need to change. But this cannot be done at gunpoint.

The attacks on India by Trump are particularly nasty, almost personal. It may have been triggered by the Prime Minister’s assertion in parliament that no one mediated the ceasefire with Pakistan. Trump likes to hog the limelight, he loves being thanked for his “help”, and has made no secret of wanting the Nobel Peace Prize. India is not obliging. Others are happier to massage Trump’s ego.

As for the trade deal, talks are on. It will be difficult for the Indian government to make any significant concessions in the agricultural sector. But someone needs to explain Indian sensitivities to Trump. Treating India with disdain won’t help. And India will do well to realise it is on its own - whether on fighting terrorism or getting a fair deal in trade.