A change mantra that changes too little

The Obama administration, which portrayed itself as the champion of change and reform, finds itself increasingly bogged down by politics. It is grappling with the Bush legacy and a host of unprecedented challenges. It also has to contend with crises both at home and abroad - and US President Barack Obama is yet to finish his first month in office. To add to his misery, the honeymoon with the Congressional Republicans and the media seems to have come to an end.

The Obama administration seems to be under siege and fighting on two fronts. On the domestic front, the economic downturn is threatening to spiral out of control. Obama has been dealt a blow by the resignations of some of his Cabinet nominees (the latest was New Hampshire Republican Senator Judd Gregg, who followed New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and former Democrat senate majority leader Tom Daschle).

On the other hand, Obama has not revealed much about his foreign policy and his strategy vis-à-vis major challenges from Russia to China and other flashpoints. Then there is the festering crisis in the Middle East, made more difficult by Israeli voters who dealt a major blow to the chances of any breakthrough by voting in a hardline coalition.

For Obama, Afghanistan is the most challenging military crisis, especially now that he has promised to withdraw US troops from Iraq.

The Obama administration is understandably pre-occupied with the pressing economic meltdown and its increasingly devastating impact on the average American, who is jolted on a daily basis with grim statistics and ominous figures reminding him that the worse it yet to come.

The latest figures are telling. According to the figures released by the US Labour Department, the unemployment rate hit 7.6 per cent in January, the highest level since September 1992. The unemployment rate in December 2008 was 7.2 per cent. In January, a total of 598,000 jobs were lost, the highest monthly job loss rate in more than 34 years. Both the number of jobs lost and the unemployment rate are higher than what economists expected.

According to the Labour Department report, the number of unemployed persons in the US has increased to 11.6 million. Since the recession started in December 2007, 3.6 million have lost their jobs. An analysis of the worsening crisis shows most of the job losses occurred in the past three months.

Employees, employers and consumers, who keep reading about job losses and layoffs, have reached the conclusion that, given the situation, they are lucky to have a job. To add to these dismal figures, the Congressional Budget Office has projected an all-time high budget deficit for the fiscal year 2009 - which is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion (Dh4.4 trillion). And this does not factor in the cost of the huge economic stimulus Bill. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office projects the US economy will shrink by 2.2 per cent this year.

The new Israeli cabinet, Iran's presidential elections in June and the situation with Russia and other international developments force Obama to adopt a wait and watch approach. In a sobering assessment of Obama's foreign policy, Bret Stephens of Wall Street Journal summarised the administration foreign policy thus: "True Obama has made the US popular in places like Montreal and Berlin, where our unpopularity never mattered much to begin with. But foreign policy is not about winning popularity contests. And woe to the president who imagines he needn't inspire fear among the wicked even as he embraces the adulation of the good."

The first glimpse of Obama's foreign policy came at the Munich Security Conference last week. As Stratfor intelligence puts it: "What was interesting about [Vice-President Joe] Biden's speech was how little change there has been in the US position & It is certainly reasonable to argue that after three weeks in office no major initiatives should be expected of the new president". Biden did not allay the fears of the Russians regarding three major issues: he did not rule out Nato expansion; did not promise to end America's pursuit of missile defence shield in Eastern Europe; and he did not acknowledge Russia's sphere of influence. The Russians responded in a typical chess game move by using their influence to pressure Kyrgyzstan to close a US airbase. Iran wants the US to deal with it as an equal. The situation in Afghanistan seems to be deteriorating.

In short, the much-touted change mantra seems more and more related to tone and style and less to the real change which millions of Americans and others across the world were hoping for. The old saying, "the more things change, the more they stay the same", rings true&

Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is a Professor of International Relations and the Head of the American Studies Unit in Kuwait University.