India climbs the economic ladder. But where is the world’s applause?

Does anyone remember the year Japan became the world’s second largest economy? Probably not. It happened way back in 1968. I myself was too young then. Japan held that coveted position till 2010, when China overtook it.

This red-letter day — pun intended — occurred just 15 years back. I remember it clearly. I was the inaugural Indian Council of Cultural Relations India Chair at the National University of Singapore. Given Singapore’s cultural proximity, with some 75% of its population of Chinese descent, this news could not be ignored.

I still remember that part of the controversy over this milestone was whether the Eurozone ought to be considered as one unit or several and whether figures emanating from China were trustworthy. But the writing in red on the Great Wall was clear: China at over $6 trillion had definitely pipped Japan, which was third at about $5.75 trillion. With over $15 trillion, the United States still led by a long way.

Where was India then? At number nine, with a GDP in excess of $1.675 trillion. But whichever way you diced or sliced the numbers, China had overtaken not only Italy and Brazil, but also major erstwhile colonial powers including United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Not to mention Japan, which had once colonised China. The world could not but stand up and applaud.

Cut to 2025, 15 years later. With a projected GDP of $4.19 trillion in 2025, India has edged past Japan at $4.186 trillion, according to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook. This milestone, announced by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam, marks a moment of profound significance for a nation once dismissed as a “basket case.”

With a young working-age population, massive domestic consumption, considerable brainpower, and unmatched enthusiasm, India’s “peaceful rise” certainly looks unstoppable. Add to this the dividend of good leadership by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India does seem to have at last shrugged off the lethargy and inertia of the socialist era’s “licence-quota-permit” raj.

Yet, a curious secondary question does spring to mind. While India’s domestic discourse is ablaze with pride and, yes, self-congratulation, the international press has greeted this achievement with a curious silence. Why does the world seem reluctant to acknowledge India’s coming of age as a major economic powerhouse? Is it a case of envy or deeper prejudice?

India’s economic ascent is no accident. It is the culmination of decades of reforms, resilience, and a relentless drive to harness the potential of a billion-plus population. Since the liberalisation of 1991, India has steadily climbed the global economic ladder, overtaking Italy, Brazil, Canada, the United Kingdom, and France to reach the fifth spot by 2022.

Now, in 2025, it has eclipsed Japan, a nation long revered as an economic colossus with legendary productivity and technological prowess. India’s nominal GDP has doubled in a decade, growing at an average of 6% annually, outpacing Japan’s stagnant 0.9–2.9% growth, hampered by an ageing population, deflation, and a depreciating yen.

The domestic response in India has, naturally, been electric. From social media to corporate boardrooms, the milestone has sparked celebrations, with industrialists like Anand Mahindra reflecting on how this “audacious dream” has become reality. Mahindra, however, rightly cautions that India must now focus on per capita GDP, which, at $2,878 in 2025, pales in comparison to Japan’s $33,995.

Social media platforms, abuzz with pride, have also been tempered by critiques of persistent challenges like infrastructure deficits and income inequality. Netizens have pointed out the irony of waterlogged streets and pathetic roads in a nation boasting a $4 trillion economy. True, the yawning gap between macro-level triumphs and ground-level realities is indeed hard to ignore.

Unfortunately, the international press has been conspicuously muted. Major global outlets — barring a few cursory mentions — have largely ignored India’s leap. This is striking, given the magnitude of the event: a 1.4-billion-strong nation, still classified as a developing economy, overtaking a G7 powerhouse. Compare this to the fanfare surrounding China’s aforementioned rise in 2010, when it overtook Japan. While the global media heralded China’s ascent as a seismic shift, it has studiously ignored India’s milestone.

The answer may lie in what I term the “grudging or slanting gaze” of the West. India’s rise, unlike China’s, is peaceful, democratic, and non-hegemonic. China’s ascent was accompanied by assertive geopolitics, territorial ambitions, and a state-driven model that alarmed and fascinated the world. India, by contrast, has pursued a path of soft power, cultural influence, and economic growth without rattling sabres or upending global norms.

Its democracy, though imperfect, is vibrant; its economy, though uneven, is dynamic. Yet, this “peaceful rise” seems to unsettle the global narrative, which is more accustomed to framing rising powers as threats or disruptors. India’s success, rooted in pluralism, innovation, and a youthful demographic, defies the stereotype of a monolithic, authoritarian ascent.

Should Indians care? Not at all. The road ahead is steep and far from smooth. India must do many things right before it can occupy its rightful place at the high table. Germany, at close to $4.75 trillion is considerably ahead, while China, over $19 trillion is nearly 5 times, and the United States at over $30.5 trillion, over 7 times India’s GDP.

Apart from geo-political threats from a hostile neighbourhood, India’s economic reforms, too, are far from complete. Ease of doing business is India is woefully inadequate, with a maze of regulations and compliances. More seriously, exiting a business is a nightmare even if starting a new venture may not be.

Nevertheless, IMF world GDP projections for 2025 have implications way beyond political grandstanding. Congratulations India at overtaking Japan. Way to go!