Coffee bean costs are falling—so why isn’t your cup getting any cheaper?

Dubai: If you’ve noticed your daily coffee costs the same (or more), you’re not alone—despite coffee prices falling sharply on global markets in recent weeks.

On paper, the news looks promising. Arabica and robusta coffee prices have slumped, thanks largely to a fast-moving harvest in Brazil and a strong recovery in Vietnam’s output. In fact, robusta prices just hit their lowest level in over a year. So why are you still paying more for your morning brew?

Turns out, the price of coffee beans is just one piece of the puzzle.

Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer, is wrapping up a strong harvest ahead of schedule, with over 84% of its 2025/26 crop already collected. Vietnam, the top robusta supplier, is also bouncing back after years of drought. That’s putting pressure on prices in commodity markets.

But coffee drinkers worldwide aren’t seeing much relief. Why? Because what you pay for coffee is less about the raw bean price—and more about everything else that goes into getting that coffee to your cup.

Yes, prices are down today. But the past two years have been marked by record highs and climate extremes. Brazil suffered its hottest year ever in 2024, with wildfires and cold snaps slashing yields. Vietnam’s production also dipped by 20% last year due to prolonged drought.

These climate shocks have made producers and exporters cautious. Even as this year’s harvests recover, they’re hesitant to lock in low prices that could turn unprofitable if the weather turns again—which it often does.

On top of climate risks, global trade tensions are heating up. A proposed 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports starting August 1 has roasters scrambling to secure alternative suppliers. This creates more market volatility—exactly the kind that pushes up retail prices, even when bean prices drop.

Meanwhile, freight costs and packaging prices remain stubbornly high. Add labour shortages and supply chain bottlenecks, and you get a situation where roasters and retailers are still facing tight margins—leaving little room to drop prices for consumers.

So, even if the global coffee price dips on paper, don’t expect café or supermarket prices to follow. In fact, many coffee companies are pushing at-home consumption, offering subscription services or bulk discounts as a way to help customers manage rising costs.

For producers, especially smallholder farmers in countries like Uganda or India, high prices may seem like a win. But with rising costs for fertilisers, labour, and equipment—and limited access to financial safety nets—the benefit is often short-lived.

In short, we may be entering a long-term era of coffee price volatility, where spikes and slumps are part of the new normal. While harvest booms may give occasional relief, climate change, trade politics, and supply chain hiccups mean retail prices may remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

So the next time you sip your flat white or brew your morning mug at home, remember: it’s not just about the beans. It’s the world behind them.