Philippine peso holds steady — is a big surge or sudden slide coming next?

Manila: As of mid-September 2025, the peso-dollar exchange rate is hovering around ₱56.85 to ₱57 per US dollar, reflecting a steady recovery from previous depreciation seen in earlier years, as per Development Bank of the Philippines research.

It closed at ₱56.86 on Thursday (September 18, 2025).

Even as the political circus rolls on — complete with probes, scandals, and flood-control fiascos — the economy keeps strutting forward, juggling growth like a tightrope walker who refuses to fall.

There are number reasons for peso’s stabilisation:

The peso’s relative strength is largely buoyed by increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances coming into the Philippines. 

According to preliminary Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data, net FDI inflows for the first half of 2025 totaled $3.42 billion, while this marks a significant decline (23.8%) from $4.49 billion in the same period of 2024, this downturn reflects shifts in global investor sentiment.

Amid uncertainties like US trade policies and domestic logistical challenges, inflows remained positive overall. The elephant in the room it the Philippines BPO industry, which contributes about $30 billion to the economy each year.

More dollars flowing into the country bolster the peso’s value, as per Metrobank research.

Inflation in the Philippines has softened, giving the BSP more room to ease monetary policy and lower interest rates, which helps economic growth and investor confidence in the peso, according to the bank’s “Wealth Insights”. 

Strong infrastructure spending and expectations of trade deals, especially with the US, have contributed to positive investor sentiment, supporting the peso. 

Moderation of the US dollar strength and reduced pressure on China’s yuan also help ease the peso’s external valuation pressures.

BSP data indicates continued modest growth in remittances in the first half of 2025, with personal remittances reaching approximately $19.65 billion (up ~3% YoY) and cash remittances at $17.67 billion (up ~2.9% YoY). 

Q1 2025 personal remittances totaled $9.40 billion (+2.7% YoY), with March at $3.13 billion. April marked a seasonal uptick due to summer demand.

Cumulative January–June cash remittances grew from $15.76 billion in 2024 to $17.67 billion in 2025, supported by inflows from land- and sea-based OFWs. 

In general, inward dollar remittances from OFWs exert upward pressure on the Philippine peso against the dollar (USD), primarily through supply-demand dynamics in the foreign exchange market. 

Here's the monthly breakdown for OFW cash remittances (the most tracked metric), based on BSP releases: