The world’s population doubled between 1960 and 2000, from 3 billion to 6 billion people.
That was the largest rise in world population over a period of two generations in human history, when measured in either absolute numbers or percentage increase.
Today, we're at 8.16 billion inhabitants on planet Earth.
‘Population bomb’
As early as the 1960s and 1970s, a wave of concern swept the globe: What will be the consequences of “overpopulation”?
Prominent figures, including Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich, author of the influential book The Population Bomb warned of famines, resource depletion – and societal collapse – due to an uncontrolled population explosion.
4 doomsday predictions and their outcomes:
Doomsday Prediction #1: Mass starvation/famines:
Prediction: Ehrlich and others predicted widespread famine due to overpopulation and resource scarcity.
Outcome: Global food production has kept pace with population growth, and the number of people suffering from hunger has actually declined in recent decades.
Between 1961 and 2020, world agricultural output increased by nearly fourfold with most of the increase in the “Global South”, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.
Doomsday Prediction #2: Nations like India and England will collapse by the year 2000.
Outcome: These two countries are still thriving.
Doomsday Prediction #3: Resource depletion (oil, minerals):
Outcome: While some resources have become more scarce, tech advancements and increased efficiency have helped to mitigate these shortages. Computer chips have tracked Moore’s Law (doubling of speed every 18 to 24 months). The cost curve of solar panels have dropped from $7.50/watt in 1995 to less than $1 in 2020; efficiency went up from 2 per cent (at $1,785/watt) in 1955 to 47.6 per cent with Fraunhofer Institute’s four-junction cell in 2022.
Doomsday Prediction #4: Environmental degradation
Overpopulation was often blamed for environmental problems like deforestation and pollution.
Outcome: These issues remain significant. Microplastics are now found in human blood and organs.
However, many countries have taken steps to address them through sustainable practices and environmental policies.
From boom to bust?
Given that non of the doomsday scenarios predicted in the 1960s came to pass, global population growth already peaked in the 1960s at over 2 per cent per year.
In 1968, when Ehrlich's The Population Bomb was published, global fertility rates were alarmingly high. China, India, and Brazil had rates of 6.51, 5.76, and 5.2 births per woman, respectively. At these rates, the world faced a looming population crisis.
Now, India, Brazil, and China have fertility rates well below replacement level – with China at a staggering 1.02 births per woman. Even developed countries like Germany, Japan, and Spain, which have been grappling with population decline for decades, continue to struggle.
Experts say that demographic decline is a "looming crisis" that cannot be ignored.
It's a simple matter of arithmetic: declining birth rates and aging populations are creating a demographic “time bomb”.
Despite the barrage of news about conflicts, there’s never been a more abundant time in the world as today.
Technological progress and human ingenuity saved the day, allowing people to live longer, more prosperous lives.
It turns out that Ehrlich's dire prediction was based on the wrong assumption of a fixed Earth's carrying capacity.
Birth rates have dropped by more than half – falling to less than 1 per cent. The UN’s World Population Prospect expects rates to continue to fall until the end of the century.
Attention needed
Meanwhile, the age of abundance is upon us. With the enlargement of the global capitalist order, the absolute number of global poverty has remarkably decreased.
For example, China’s four decades of economic development lifted an estimated 770 million people out of poverty.
In India, a mix of factors (education, urbanisation, economic growth, healthcare, social welfare schemes, employment drives and food distribution programmes) lifted an estimated 415 million out of poverty from 2005 to 2021.
The implications of this demographic shift are profound. Aging populations, shrinking workforces, and economic stagnation are just a few of the challenges that these countries face.
The once-distant threat of population decline has become a pressing reality, demanding urgent attention and innovative solutions.
Drop in fertility
Nicholas Eberstadt, a leading expert on demography, has highlighted how a new era of depopulation is unfolding across the globe.
In East Asia, for instance, Japan, China, Taiwan, and South Korea all have fertility rates drastically below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.
Similarly, countries in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Europe, and the Middle East are witnessing fertility collapses.
Even the US, which has so far resisted depopulation trends, could experience population decline by 2080, according to some projections.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains the last bastion of high fertility rates, with over four children per woman.
However, even there, fertility rates are declining.
If the rest of the world is any indication, Sub-Saharan Africa may soon follow the global trend toward sub-replacement fertility.
Recent studies
Two recent studies bear this out.
The 2022 report “Global Population Prospects” published by UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), highlights the potential for population decline in many countries due to factors such as low fertility rates and aging populations.
Joseph Tainter, who published the book “The Future of Humanity: Population, Resources, Environment, and Technology” also explored this subject in 2022.
Tainter argues that the complexity and scale of human societies can ultimately lead to decline and collapse – potentially resulting in a global depopulation.
Understanding birth rates
The global decline in birth rates is a perplexing puzzle, with no single, definitive explanation.
Economic development and material advancements have often been cited as contributing factors, but even impoverished nations like Myanmar and Nepal are experiencing sub-replacement fertility.
It seems that the number of children women desire may be more deeply rooted than economic or cultural conditions.
A new paradigm of family formation is emerging, characterised by delayed marriages, fewer long-term unions, and a growing trend of individuals choosing to live alone. This shift suggests that autonomy and convenience have become paramount to younger generations. Children, while a source of joy, may be seen as incompatible with this newfound sense of independence.
'Perfect storm'
Despite the mounting evidence of global depopulation, some argue that overpopulation will remain a threat for years to come. They cite that current demographic models are flawed, and do not factor in the possibility of dramatic shifts in societal trends.
Still, many think the population decline is a "ticking time bomb", citing plummeting global birth rates, and populations aging at an alarming rate.
As more countries enter a state of indefinite depopulation, the world may face a stark reality: shrinking labour forces and aging societies. By 2050, the majority of the world’s population could be living in net mortality zones—regions where deaths outnumber births.
Nations like China, South Korea, and much of Europe are already preparing for such futures, where the elderly vastly outnumber the young.
As populations shrink and age, countries will face a perfect storm of challenges: economic stagnation and a weakened workforce.
Will robots take over?
Thanks to increased food production efficiencies, the immediate threat of mass starvation has subsided.
Technological advancements, education, and improved health outcomes will likely continue to drive economic growth.
Still, the long-term implications of unchecked population growth, coupled with rising inequality and environmental degradation, may continue to pose a significant challenge.
Policy-makers may need to take a look at the data and trends. Decisive action may be needed.
Should higher birth rates be encouraged? What if today's generation of child-bearing age women don't buy it?
Will a new paradigm of family formation continue to emerge, like double-income-no-kids (DINKs), or delayed marriages, fewer long-term unions, and individuals choosing to live alone or with friends?
Will young people choose convenience over child-rearing? Will they continue to see children as incompatible with their newfound sense of independence, instead of being a source of joy?
Yet, given man's ability to harness innovation effectively, societies will still continue to thrive, achieving rising standards of living and material wealth overall.
And while depopulation may sound ominous, given man's ability to adapt, it does may not necessarily spell disaster, as earlier predicted by Ehrlich and company.
