Power, plot twists, and payback: $114 billion at stake in Philippine elections

Manila: Today is the Philippines’ 2025 midterm elections, which promises to be a political showdown.

It's shaping up like a telenovela — only the stakes are real: power, money, survival, and revenge. 

From the Marcos’s northern stronghold to the Duterte bastion in the south, the country’s two most famous (or infamous?) political dynasties are gearing up for a face-off to have control over a huge pot amid a thickening plot.

What’s at stake

At the centre of it all?

The Philippines' annual government budget: ₱6.352 trillion (about $114 billion) for 2025. It's taxpayers' money.

There is cautious hope that, this time, a more informed generation of voters will choose leaders who are true bridge builders and peacemakers— those whose decisions are firmly rooted in the needs of the people, especially the marginalised.

One can only hope this is no longer just a moonshot.

Crocs in office?

Let’s not sugarcoat it: many Filipinos call their politicians “buwaya”, local term for crocodiles with insatiable hunger — not for prey, but for public funds.

I heard as much while lined up with fellow voters at my local precinct this morning.

Someone quipped: “Why do we have to endure queueing up under the sun just to vote for ‘buwayas’?”

Not a very funny joke

It’s a joke that’s not very funny anymore. Corruption is so common, it’s practically part of the local vocabulary.

How can those billions of dollars in taxpayers' money be felt on the ground even as our roads are crumbling under the weight of kickbacks?

Given the prevailing electoral culture, it’s nearly impossible to shake it off.

Expecting corruption or impunity to go away is akin to hoping that “sabong” (cockfighting, involving two roosters bred and trained for fighting) — a centuries-old cultural icon that blends sport, socialising, and gambling — to disappear.

And every election season, people especially in rural areas expect to get cash stapled with the list of candidates, a cycle is repeated every 3 years.

A joke at supermarkets and groceries these days: the cash they get at the checkout counters bear staple marks, a sign they came from people who sold their soul to the buwayas.

Defining moment

While today's vote is about local leadership, it reflects a larger question: can political stability keep pace with the country’s ambition? 

Every peaceful, credible vote strengthens democratic institutions — critical to boosting investor confidence, and creating jobs.

Given the dynamics in the Asean neighbourhood, the nation faces a number of generation-defining challenges:

Addressing some, if not all, of these would form the stepping stones toward its upper middle-income country (UMIC) aspirations.

The ultimate goal remains full high-income classification, but UMIC is a critical waypoint.

Every election brings a chance, however slim, to make some or all of these happen.

Due to decades of neglect and underinvestment, the country’s infrastructure is in urgent need of a serious upgrade.

Will this be the year the “buwaya” finally gets caged? Or will voters just get new crocs with better TikTok accounts?

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara “Inday” Duterte are not holding hands these days. 

The Marcos camp aims to dominate the Senate and secure legislative muscle for the President’s pet projects — economic reforms, tourism and investments drive, constitutional changes, and overseeing a massive infrastructure build-up.

The Duterte bloc, led by feisty Sara and her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte (now holed up in The Hague awaiting International Criminal Court trial for his deadly “war on drugs"), is expected to defend their turf, especially in Mindanao, and challenge Marcos's grip on power, backed by the so-called “Solid North”.

The Senate is their battlefield — and every seat counts.

Key flashpoints to watch

There are several flashpoints to watch in this vote.

In the Senate races, the key question is: Can Marcos Jr pack the upper house with loyalists, or will Dutertes pull off a Mindanao miracle?

On the question of Constitutional reform, a “cha-cha” (charter change) may be looming. Critics fear it’s a Trojan horse for extending terms or shifting power structures. 

In the age of Tiktok, Reels, Shorts and AI, where truth is trumped by perception, the lifting of term limits, could be a "red line" fraught with danger. 

The six-year cap for president and vice president has so far withstood the test of time since 1987. It has worked remarkably well.

Lifting it could lead to unnecessary trouble that could benefit no one, other than the Philippines’ regional competitors and the crocs' bank accounts.

Corruption vs basic services

Voters are hungry for clean water, working transport, and decent jobs — not just campaign jingles.

So ultimately, what’s at stake in this polls for ordinary Pinoys?

A lot — at least in theory. 

A well-balanced Senate can keep the executive in check. Clean elections could mean better roads, schools, and healthcare.

But in a system where political dynasties rotate power like family heirlooms, many voters remain skeptical. 

Still, a sliver of hope remains.  Some signs of change are bubbling. More youth are engaged, fact-checking is in fashion, and Filipinos, while cynical, haven’t given up hope that someone in office might finally have less buwaya habits and more conscience.

Bottom line 

This midterm election isn’t just about who gets a Senate seat.

It’s about who gets to shape the country’s future — Marcoses, Dutertes, or, dare we dream, someone new. 

So grab your popcorn, or better yet, your voter ID. The circus is in town, but so is your chance to choose something better.