Trump’s foreign policy legacy: No new wars, but new calculations

For many worldwide, President Donald Trump can be many things — sometimes simultaneously. We already know that he’s not a typical US leader. He’s a populist who made populism politically fashionable in many countries. He’s a staunch nationalist who upended American politics with his Make America Great Again (MAGA) grassroots revolution. And he’s a peddler of hyperbole, never ready to admit that he’s wrong about his remarks and quirky views of the world.

But one thing Trump is not is a warmonger. One can have a long list of misgivings about the president’s agenda, his fiery attitude about mainstream media — the fake news — and his enamour of the mega-rich and mighty leaders around the world. But judging from his first term, and as he always likes to remind his rivals, America did not wage new wars under his watch.

In fact, among his achievements are the signing of the Abraham Accords and proposing a somewhat unconventional settlement of the Israel/Palestine conflict, one that both sides were not ready to embrace for different reasons.

As he ran for a second term, Trump rarely ventured into foreign politics, but when he did, he said that the war on Ukraine would not have happened if he was still president, just as the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel would not have taken place. Both statements are contentious, and there is no evidence that he is right about his claims.

But in contrast to the Joe Biden presidency, much has been discussed about how Washington failed to contain the fallout from the two major crises. On the other hand, Trump promised to resolve both issues as soon as he took office.

To his credit, Trump was able to force Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into accepting a ceasefire deal the day before he was sworn in on January 20. The Biden administration had tried and failed to bring a lengthy pause to the war or to initiate a genuine process of negotiations between the two sides, to the frustration of America’s Arab allies.

On Ukraine, Biden had chosen to send billions of dollars in arms to Kyiv while leading a Western alliance to push Russia out of territories it occupied in the absence of a serious political process to bring both sides to the negotiation table. The conflict exhausted a divided Europe while claiming the lives of tens of thousands on both sides of the war.

Trump had boasted that he could end the war in Ukraine on day one — another piece of hyperbole on his part. But he also chose a trusted friend and fellow businessman, Steve Witkoff, to handle multiple crises: Russia/Ukraine, Hamas/Israel, and a new Iran nuclear deal. Witkoff had succeeded in securing a three-phase ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel, which went into effect last January.

It was the most comprehensive plan yet to bring that bloody war to an end. But after Israel and Hamas concluded phase one of the deal, Netanyahu decided to change the terms so he could resume his war on Gaza. The ceasefire collapsed, and Israel enforced a tight blockade on Gaza, preventing all humanitarian aid from reaching millions of hapless civilians.

Netanyahu’s decision to restart the war, whose military objectives had been greatly degraded, does not mean that the Trump administration was totally convinced of his motives. Still, he was allowed to continue because he promised a quick military victory — one that has yet to materialise.

But Trump had other priorities to pursue. His historic trip to the Gulf, while sidelining Israel, underlined the president’s new approach to the region, where he sought to cement old partnerships and follow a different foreign policy agenda as the dealmaker he always prided himself on being.

The humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza had overshadowed his trip in many ways. Netanyahu was becoming unpopular at home over his pursuit of a war that was isolating Israel internationally. And Trump could sense this.

While remaining a staunch ally of Israel, America under Trump was not in the business of starting wars or sustaining them. In a speech during his Gulf visit, Trump lambasted the neo-cons and their regime change agenda. He believed America had no business interfering in how the region’s people wanted to live.

Trump’s America wanted lucrative trade deals and to do business, not to launch wars. This is not how Netanyahu viewed the region. Feeling that Trump was distancing himself from him, the Israeli premier peddled the idea that Israel wanted to implement Trump’s plan for Gaza.

But which plan was he referring to exactly? Trump had offered several ideas on Gaza, from the US owning the Strip to turning it into a freedom centre where people, including Gazans, can live freely.

While he is trying to launch a peace process between Ukraine and Russia, and as he pushes to reach a new nuclear deal with Iran, Trump is losing patience with Netanyahu.

President Trump is in a position to end the war in Gaza, just as a majority of Israelis now want him to and all Gazans are hoping for. He can end one of the most horrific wars in modern history and would be on the right side of history if he chooses to do so as the peacemaker he always wanted to be.

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman