On the brink: Why the Iran-Israel conflict threatens the Middle East’s future

Amid the ongoing military escalation between Israel and Iran, the Middle East is already showing early signs of serious strategic fallout. These developments necessitate rapid action to reinvigorate diplomacy and reopen channels of dialogue to prevent dangerous scenarios that could dramatically reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape in the near future.

The exchange of air and missile strikes between the two bitter rivals, Israel and Iran, has left the entire region, not just the peoples of the two nations, on edge. The risk of the conflict spiralling into catastrophic consequences is very real, whether through a potential nuclear radiation leak, the geographical expansion of fighting, or the outbreak of a prolonged war of attrition that could deeply disrupt all regional economies.

The strategic landscape in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf has long been deeply complex, shaped by factors and considerations well known to observers. For years, however, the rules of engagement remained relatively clear and were largely respected by all parties, despite recurring cycles of tension and de-escalation whose outcomes were generally predictable. That clarity, however, has begun to unravel in recent months. The conflict has intensified sharply, long-standing rules have been breached and redefined, and the temperature of confrontation has risen significantly. What was once confined to rhetoric and psychological war has now turned into direct military escalation, driven by the failure of diplomacy to contain the growing tensions. Both sides have edged perilously close to the brink, engaging in a high-stakes game of brinkmanship with little regard for the very real danger of descending into full-scale war — a war with no clear winner. In today’s complex conflicts, modern warfare offers no guarantees of absolute or decisive victory for any side involved.

The reality is that an end to the confrontation between Iran and Israel is unlikely to halt the momentum of regional escalation already in motion. Strategically, the situation has grown increasingly complex, and the eventual outcome will undoubtedly shape expectations for the region’s near future. A ceasefire may not mark the start of peace, nor signal a new phase of calm and stability. All possibilities remain open. It is therefore essential that any resolution to the hostilities be grounded in a credible diplomatic framework in which both parties shoulder their historical responsibilities for ensuring regional and global security and stability.

In reality, the outcome of this conflict carries bitter strategic consequences for both Iran and Israel. The strategic losses have extended to encompass the entire region and even beyond, on an international level. The most significant and complex challenge currently facing regional states and major powers is how to reach an immediate halt to the war before it escalates into an environmental or nuclear catastrophe — or slips into other well-known scenarios. It is evident that bridging the gap between Israel’s objectives and Iran’s conditions is particularly difficult at this stage, not to mention the US position, which has moved to a more hardline stance regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Nonetheless, there remains hope for diplomatic exits from this real predicament threatening regional and international security and stability.

The gravest strategic loss in this conflict — beyond the massive human and material losses — is the collapse of the atmosphere of coexistence, peace, and tolerance, which some Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries had heavily invested in promoting and institutionalising. The resurgence of hostility, hatred, and religious-historical grudges in a region already rife with sectarian, ideological, and doctrinal tensions — along with developmental, economic, and cultural pressures that are at times exploited to ignite regional fires — fuels extremism, violence, and terrorism. This, in turn, will inevitably impact all countries around the world, as the conflict creates fertile ground for a new wave or generation of terrorists and extremists who pose a threat to global security.

The current crisis between Israel and Iran represents yet another example of the absence of law and the declining ability of international collective action mechanisms to enforce security. It is imperative that all recognise that a world without a rules-based international order is a world ruled by chaos and instability, where rogue actors thrive, disregarding international norms and escaping accountability.

What matters today — not tomorrow — is stopping the war and sitting at the negotiation table to pave the way for a peaceful resolution to this bloody conflict between Israel and Iran and to lay a real foundation for peace and stability before this catastrophic war spins out of control and enters a far more dangerous phase. It must be acknowledged that all regional relationships are now under strain, with regional actors cornered in precarious and unenviable positions. Escaping this cycle demands out-of-the-box thinking, revitalising stagnant files, and seriously confronting the massive obstacles that have long hindered efforts toward peace and conflict resolution in the region in accordance with international legitimacy.

Iranians and Israelis alike must be convinced that everyone pays the price of war and that peace is a shared interest for all. Rational thinking and halting the continued push for mutual combat is the beginning of stepping down from the precipice — preparing to abide by international law and the UN Charter and allowing mediators the opportunity to offer effective contributions toward restoring calm and gradually moving toward foundations for security and stability.

The present moment in the Middle East urgently calls for mobilising diplomatic resources and the world’s wise and rational actors to open channels of communication, mend rifts, promote dialogue, and bring viewpoints closer in order to secure an immediate ceasefire. It is time to give diplomacy and dialogue a chance and to re-engineer the regional security and stability framework in the Middle East in a way that aligns with the aspirations for development and the right of all peoples to prosperity, coexistence, and peace.

Awadh Al-Breiki is senior researcher in American Affairs, Head of Trends Global Sector, TRENDS Research & Advisory