Obama's peace push could stagger Iran

Right after he took oath of office, US President Barack Obama visited the State Department and from there announced the appointment of a special envoy to the Middle East, Senator George Mitchell.

The appointment of Mitchell was seen as an important step towards reviving the stalled Middle East peace process. It also signalled a departure from the policies of the previous administration, which for most of its tenure resisted direct engagement in peace talks between the Arabs and Israelis.

Former president George W. Bush was perhaps the most outspoken US president on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but was the least amongst all in translating his words into action. He repeatedly promised that he would work towards the establishment of a viable Palestinian state before the end of his presidency but refused to press Israel to dismantle colonies or to sit down at the table with Palestinian counterparts to discuss a future Palestinian state.

In his first tour in the Middle East as special envoy, George Mitchell, who does not lack experience in the region's politics, stated his task would not be easy. Mitchell did not surprise many, but his statement raised questions about what the Obama administration is really trying to achieve.

Is the United States trying to solve the six-decade old conflict or merely bring it under control? Is peace in the Middle East, for the new ruling elite in Washington, an end in itself or a means to realise other objectives? It is too early to try to answer these two key questions, but the US historical record in this regard does not seem assuring.

Since the end of the Cold War, the US has shown genuine interest in the Middle East peace process only when contemplating major military action in the region. Peace talks have always been employed as a tool to garner support among Arab allies, reward them for supporting US policy and help them keep Arab public opinion at bay.

In 1991, the Madrid peace conference was designed as a reward for Arab leaders who stood by the US and supported "Desert Storm" to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait. Throughout the 1990s, the US used the peace process as a tool to win the backing of Arab capitals for the dual containment policy against both Iran and Iraq.

In June 2002, while the US was planning for the invasion of Iraq, Bush announced the so-called "road map" for peace in the Middle East, wherein he committed himself to the two-state solution and promised a viable Palestinian state by 2005.

In fact, since the mid 1950s, the US has adopted a crisis management approach to deal with the Arab-Israeli conflict instead of a crisis solution approach. It intervened only when the conflict threatened to spin out of control or seemed to affect key US interests in the region.

Following the 1973 Arab-Israeli war and the Arab oil embargo, the US called for a regional peace conference in Geneva only after former secretary of state Henry Kissinger realised that the US would no longer be able to detach the Palestinian question and its unlimited support for Israel from securing Arab oil supplies.

In the waning days of the Bush administration, former vice-president Dick Cheney tried to win the support of "moderate Arab states" for military action against Iran's nuclear facilities. Every time he visited the region seeking support against Iran, however, he was reminded by Arab leaders of the importance to do something to resume peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. Cheney's answer was always that the Arab-Israeli conflict is not the key problem in the region. Invariably, Arab officials would retort that it could help the US solve other pressing problems.

It appears that the new US administration understands very well this equation. The announcement by Obama that he is planning to exert serious efforts to help resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is an attempt to build goodwill among Arab allies that have pushed for America to re-engage in the Middle East. It looks also like giving away some sort of an early reward for the moderate Arab leaders, whose support would be critical for tougher measures against Iran. Having said that, Iran must get really worried about Obama's policies concerning peace in the Middle East.

Dr Marwan Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.