Losing the argument
Recent months have witnessed a rush of Arab and international summits. Whether inquorate, full-scale, emergency or quadripartite; whether under the banner of economic development, reconciliation or the reconstruction of Gaza, none of these meetings seem to have made any headway with critical issues they sought to address and the problems inevitably resurface on new agendas.
The noble institution of the Arab summit took shape in 1964 when the then Egyptian leader, Jamal Abdul Nasser, called on fellow leaders to form a united front to deal with urgent issues facing the Umma.
Unfortunately, since 1990, when Cairo hosted an emergency summit on Saddam Hussain's invasion of Kuwait, these gatherings have failed to live up to Abdul Nasser's dream, swiftly degenerating into shambolic scenes of disunity and cavalier breaking of the ranks.
The 2008 Arab League summit in Damascus was boycotted by King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia, the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, King Abdullah of Jordan, King Mohammad VI of Morocco and President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen as an expression of their displeasure with Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, who raised hackles by meddling in Lebanese internal affairs and referring to his fellow Arab leaders as "half men" during the Israeli war with Hezbollah in 2006.
On Monday, Doha will host this year's Arab League summit and we may be in for an encore: it is rumoured that the Emir of Qatar Shaikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani intends to invite Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to attend as a guest of honour. The so-called Axis of Moderate Arab States - led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia - are likely to respond with an eloquent absence.
The volatility of the Arab Summit apparatus - consisting of ageing leaders with fixed opinions and disinterested younger ones with none - is quite a problem. The habitual failure of these leaders to forge agreement (or even meet) is opening a huge political vacuum which the emerging regional powers - Israel, Iran and Turkey - are scrambling to fill. Dangerous indeed considering that Israel is already a nuclear power, Iran will shortly be one, and Turkey is busy consolidating its strong economic base as a prelude to joining the club.
Ironically, while some Arab leaders are gearing up for a political war with Iran, the new US administration has declared its intention to open a dialogue with Ahmadinejad. And while the Axis of Moderates extends an olive branch to Israel, insisting on reviving the Arab peace initiative, that country responds by electing a far-right government.
The average Arab has long since stopped believing that these summits would resolve any of the region's [or the Umma's] major issues.
The Arab summit, however, doesn't disappoint when it comes to amusement, producing the most dramatic episodes, and unexpected twists and turns, like a comical soap opera.
At the 1990 Cairo summit, the closed sessions were a shambles and attendees were forced to run for cover as the Iraqi and Kuwaiti delegations fought pitched battles, attacking each other with ashtrays and plates.
In 2003, also in Cairo, delegates stood back while the Saudi king launched a fierce broadside at Colonel Muammar Gaddafi of Libya. Broadcast live, this Arabic melodrama was enjoyed by millions.
Gaddafi gave a spirited performance of his own when he took to the stage during the 2008 summit in Damascus. Haranguing his colleagues in a highly sarcastic manner for the failures of Arabism, he warned that the US had double-crossed Saddam Hussain and that it was only a matter of time before they, too, were caged and executed. Just a year later, this prediction has come true with the call for President Omar Al Bashir of Sudan to be tried at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague.
Al Bashir's presence or absence in Doha will be a subject of particular interest for the assembled media. If he arrives, despite the threat of extradition for trial, he will be seen as a hero; if he fails to turn up, it means he truly fears the ICC and that his fellow Arab leaders are unable to protect him despite their strength and numbers.
Journalists and observers will be equally fascinated trying to predict whether Colonel Gaddafi would consent to be in the same room as King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, without succumbing to the urge for revenge after his pasting in Cairo. The Saudi king has already steered clear of three summits in order to avoid an unpleasant run-in with the Libyan head of state.
There has been a massive, but fruitless, last-minute effort to clear the atmosphere and make this Doha conference a reconciliation summit. The Arab quartet summit in Riyadh last month, for example, hosted by King Abdullah and attended by Mubarak, Kuwait's Emir Shaikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah and Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, failed to convince the latter to break ranks with Iran and join the fold of Arab moderates.
The endless division among the Arab leaders weakens them as a whole, rendering it impossible to reach a consensus or deal with any of the complicated and pressing issues on the agenda in Doha in an effective manner.
These issues are: Iran's emergence as a nuclear power, the future of the Arab peace plan given the new far-right administration in Israel, and how to achieve Arab reconciliation.
Where Iran is concerned, most Arab leaders seem oblivious of the changes US President Barack Obama is ushering in, effectively excluding themselves from strategic participation in long-term international relations.
The Arab peace initiative has always been a non-starter, largely due to Israeli intransigence, but no Arab summit has yet come up with 'Plan B'.
Arab reconciliation may be briefly achieved in Doha, when the leaders gather to enjoy lavish banquets. After all, everything else can be adjourned until the next summit.
Abdel Bari Atwan is editor of the pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi.
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