The failed peace negotiations indicate that the goal of Geneva II was not to achieve comprehensive peace as a central objective for the revival of Yemen, but to achieve reconciliation between the belligerents. Geneva II and the events following will not stop the war through failed truces.
These negotiations do not represent any possibility of real peace for the Yemeni people.
If Geneva I and II do not represent the appropriate solutions to resolve the Yemen conflict, what is the possible situation that can contribute to spreading peace throughout Yemen? There is no magic formula to provide the right solution, but it must come from within the country or it will never succeed in practice.
The international mediators, whether UN special advisor Jamal Benomar or UN Yemen envoy Esmail Ould Shaikh Ahmad, have failed in guiding the conciliation process due to their ignorance of the real nature of this conflict in spite of their involvement in Yemeni society for some time.
The Yemeni mentality and the political and social legacy will constitute major obstacles in reconciling the various parties.
In any negotiations the main issue is not only about litigants, as the negotiations would turn into a technique of arbitration, which Yemenis are accustomed to using in solving their personal and tribal disputes, but the expansion of the dispute and the deep-rooted differences require other techniques.
The new techniques must reflect the peculiarity of Yemeni society and focus on renovation in addressing problems and presenting solutions.
As a result, the forthcoming negotiations in Addis Ababa on January 14 will not make a major difference unless a new and solid strategy for conciliation is presented.
This new strategy must bear in mind the agreement and the implementation phase, or the agreement will become merely ink on paper, as was the case with the outputs of National Dialogue Conference.
The new element that any initiative might provide is to maintain a united stance towards a ceasefire, in conjunction with any possible political or military inconvenience. That has failed during the past seven days and will certainly fail in the coming days after renewing the ceasefire.
It seems impossible to stop violations in light of the huge military build-up on both sides and the presence of armed elements inside Yemen — whether individuals, tribes or terrorist organisations such as Al Qaida and Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant).
The absence of government security oversight and the revival of arms trafficking over the past few months, in addition to the suspicious movement of extremists from one city to another in Yemen at different times, all point to the suggestion that any truce proposed will not be applicable and that the current approach in holding peace and reconciliation talks between rivals in Yemen is invalid and in need of a change.
Renewal of conflict
The statements issued by Al Houthi rebels and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s loyalists, which were declared during preparations for the Geneva II conference, underscored two basic elements: First was the absence of any intention to withdraw from the territories that both currently occupy; and the second was no intent whatsoever to disarm.
This means that a truce will not prevent the renewal of the military and political conflict within Yemen, neither today nor in the future.
Geneva II is an important station for review and planning for the coalition, particularly the Gulf states with regard to their future role in Yemen.
It will certainly lead to a significant change in the political and military views of the coalition countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in light of the continued existence of Al Houthis and Saleh militants in the political life of Yemen. This is evident in the unfinished war in Taiz and the ongoing betrayals from figures that claim loyalty to the coalition.
The main concern in Yemen is that the absence of proper planning for the post-conflict stages could lead to further conflicts and there are many precedents in recent history to confirm the likelihood of this.
Yemen is not represented only through prominent leaders and their associates, but the nation contains different entities — some homogeneous and others disharmonious, whether politically, economically or culturally.
The nation and its people are in dire need of those who understand the needs and can ease the sufferings of the people. Geneva II and the subsequent episodes are not the solution.
There must be a search for different ways to communicate with the people of Yemen, who are most likely to suffer from the persistence of the current crisis.
Haifa AlMaashi is a former professor at the University of Aden and a senior researcher in ‘b’huth’ (Dubai).
