Israel’s war gamble: Netanyahu’s strike on Iran risks global chaos

Israel is at war once more. The unprovoked blitzkrieg of Iran’s nuclear and missile sites, which began on Friday, is something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has wanted and planned for many years. This time, he received the green light from US President Donald Trump, who, until a day before, had said that he wanted to give the US-Iran nuclear talks a chance and had urged Netanyahu not to derail them.

It turned out to be a ruse. Israel’s wide-ranging attack on Iran would not have happened without tacit US knowledge and approval. But what began as a preemptive strike, as Israel called it, could soon devolve into a regional war that could drag on and endanger the stability of the entire region and the world.

The strike had stunned Iran. It took out the upper echelon of the Islamic Republic’s military and intelligence leaders. Israel assassinated at least eight of Iran’s top nuclear scientists. The damage to Iran’s most strategic nuclear plants, research centres, and uranium enrichment facilities has been extensive. The entire nuclear programme has been degraded, and it would take years for Iran to rebuild it.

But Iran is not Hezbollah or Hamas. It is a vast country of over 100 million people with a rich history and distinct identity. To think that Israel would be able to humiliate Tehran into submission is a colossal miscalculation. Iran has responded with a barrage of long-range ballistic missiles that caused unprecedented destruction in Tel Aviv and its neighbourhoods. Iran spoke of targeting military airports and bases. The world held its breath.

The sneak attack occurred two days before a sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks was scheduled to take place in Oman. Both sides had indicated that progress was made in the previous rounds. But Iran had insisted that any agreement would not prevent Tehran from maintaining its enrichment activity, albeit within acceptable margins. Israel wanted the entire programme to be scrapped.

The heavy Iranian response had stunned Israel. Netanyahu called on the Iranian people to rise against the ayatollahs. That is unlikely to happen. The Israeli attack was seen as an aggression on Iran’s sovereignty and an affront to its national pride and identity.

The belief that regime change could come out of the Israeli attack is myopic. Iran now knows that Israel had waged an existential war. In reality, this is a war that serves Netanyahu’s interests above all else. Ironically, it is Israel, not Iran, that is in breach of international law regarding its nuclear activities. It had kept its nuclear program secretive since the 1960s. It had weaponised that programme and is believed to have tens of atomic bombs.

Netanyahu had once more boasted that Israel was redrawing the map of the Middle East, one where it emerges as the only regional power. If Iran falls and sinks into chaos, it is Israel that stands to call the shots across this vast and strategic part of the world. The geopolitical fallout from this will shape the region’s fate for many decades to come.

But Netanyahu may have miscalculated for many reasons. Israel has started this war, but it cannot determine how and when it will end. This could easily spill over and force Iran to raise the stakes by disrupting oil exports and undermining the stability of its neighbours.

Also, Trump had promised not to start new wars or engage in regime change tactics as the neocons had done in Iraq and Afghanistan in the first decade of the new millennium. His MAGA supporters were quick to express their rejection of America being dragged into a new war in the Middle East for the sake of Israel. That critical mass of voters has become vociferous in criticising Israel’s grip over US foreign policy.

Furthermore, a prolonged war will further undermine the international world order. Israel continues its attack on the people of Gaza and has rejected all attempts to end the war. The position of Western leaders who rallied to support Israel’s attack on Iran in the name of self-defence is polarizing the world further.

Netanyahu, who has been accusing Iran of building a nuclear bomb since the early 1990s, must not be allowed to ignite an international crisis that could easily get out of control.

Trump has erred by relenting to Netanyahu and believing that bombing Iran in this manner will bring Tehran to the negotiating table. A diplomatic process was in place, and it was close to reaching an acceptable agreement, which Iran’s neighbour had urged the US president to pursue. Now we are on the brink of a major conflagration, and it is Israel, as well as Iran and the entire region, which could pay a high price.

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman