Is Russia Europe's friend or foe?

Russia is about to go through some years of major problems and the world is not yet ready to deal with the trauma this will cause. The $40 barrel of oil has been a financial disaster for Russia's rulers who are now unable to buy themselves out of trouble, but this immediate problem should not hide the fundamental problem that Europe and the rest of the world do not know how to treat Russia: Is it a difficult partner, or a strategic adversary - as the former German foreign minister Joschka Fisher asked in this newspaper last week (January 10).

Because the European Union (EU) does not have an answer to that question, Russia has been allowed to dangle on the edge of Europe, becoming increasingly paranoid as it sees itself being surrounded on all sides. Most of the states in its former sphere of influence have all rushed to join Nato, and when Poland and the Czech Republic installed Nato's defensive missile systems, this begged the question, defensive against who?

This was made clear when Ukraine and Georgia both applied for Nato membership, and were vigorously welcomed by George W. Bush's administration. In addition to applying for membership, Ukraine's economic reform has been so mismanaged that it cannot afford to pay for Russian gas at market prices, and its refusal to do so made very clear that it wanted to escape to Nato and EU sponsorship away from Russia. Moscow clearly has to feel that it is being excluded from the European heartland, and it is being actively working against Europe and the United States.

The former KGB officers who run today's Russia have not allowed a vigorous or diverse economy to emerge. They have built a series of vast inter-locking private companies which merge with state organisations to form a command economy in different shape. And this economy is about to hit the rocks, since its main earner is oil and gas, and the price has fallen from near $150 a barrel to $40.

The political and social outcome of this crisis is very uncertain, but it is certain that Russia's present rulers will want to hold on to power whatever civil unrest may strike, and as former KGB men, they know what to do to keep office. It is important to keep a clear focus on the fear of serious internal chaos hitting Russia, when we look at events in Ukraine and Georgia, as well as at Russian pleas for a dialogue with the European institutions on reshaping the security structure of Europe.

There is no doubt that Europe has its own problems. The European Union's hopeless attempts to form a coherent foreign policy on any issue has foundered on jealousies between the member states.

Nato was set up as a European mutual defence treaty and has drifted into becoming a Western enforcement taskforce around the world. Europe has many organisations that were set up to deal with the Cold War, but are not good at handling the problems of the 21st century, such as drugs, organised crime and smuggling, and huge illegal immigration. The old structures offer conventional military forces, but the problems require other answers.

Russians not trusted

But regardless of these problems, most Europeans do not want to share finding a solution with the Russians. The French and British, and the former East Europeans, do not trust the Russians, and persist in thinking of them as remaining outside their sphere of influence. However, the Germans and a small but growing bloc want to find a way to talk to Russia in a more constructive way than over the end of a missile launcher.

In the end, some route has to be found to convert Russia from being treated like a strategic enemy into being treated with great caution as a very difficult and nonetheless important partner. This will mean redefining Nato (again, but this time not to suit America's global frustrations with the UN forces), and the many European organisations such as the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

But the economic chaos about to overwhelm Russia will probably stop this dead. No one will want to deal with ex-KGB generals hanging on to power as supposed democrats as they call out the military to suppress people's fury at falling living standards and lack of progress. This is what is waiting for Europe as it argues about gas prices. And Ukraine knows that the chaos is coming but its own government is so delicately poised between different parties that it can do nothing. It is time to watch Russia very carefully, but at the same time develop a more hopeful plan for the whole of Europe including Russia than simply ringing Russia with missiles.

Would strongly disagree with this article, Russians are the only people to do what they say. Europe has to fear Ukraine who has been cheating all the parties and robbing them off!
Alexandra
Dubai,UAE
Posted: January 15, 2009, 09:26