Between 1968 and 1973 the US negotiated publicly and secretly with the North Vietnamese with the aim of ending what was then America’s longest war. In the end the US withdrew its troops and two years later the South was overrun by the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese army. Years later the US recognised the new regime in Vietnam and exchanged ambassadors. Sounds familiar?
This week the US said that it was “coordinating” with the Taliban, who took over the capital and the rest of the country last month, to facilitate the evacuation of US nationals and others, including Afghan citizens. Few days ago a Pentagon official said that the US could work with the Taliban to fend off a common enemy; the Daesh-K, a splinter group affiliated with Daesh. That group was responsible for the suicide bombings at Kabul airport that killed 13 US Marines and tens of Afghan civilians including children. It is vehemently against the Taliban.
In the late 1980s, the US opened secret negotiations channels with the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), the sworn enemy of Israel and a few years later Washington had brokered a peace accord between the Palestinians and Israel.
If the US negotiated with the North Vietnamese, the PLO and now with the Taliban, why not do the same with the regime of Syria’s Bashar Assad? After a decade of one of the bloodiest civil wars in recent decades, parties involved in the conflict have reached a political and military deadlock. The political process had stalled years ago while on the ground there was a stalemate. The Turks control Idlib in the north and along the common borders, while the US is entrenched in parts of eastern Syria. Russia is content with having solidified its military presence along the Eastern Mediterranean while Iran and pro-Iran militias are defending the capital and are closing in on the south; close to Jordan.
The humanitarian catastrophe that engulfs the Syrian conflict continues with refugees and displaced persons constituting more than third of the population. In the words of Jordan’s King Abdullah, whose country hosts more than a millions Syrians, those refugees are not returning home any time soon. The Syrian conflict had allowed Daesh to emerge and threaten regional stability. Even after it was finally defeated, groups belonging to the terrorist organisation continue to strike in parts of Iraq and eastern Syria.
Russia’s sponsorship of talks in Sochi and Astana has not delivered a political settlement just as previous rounds of Geneva talks. The opposition is divided and powerless while Turkey gives protection to jihadist groups entrenched in Idlib. There has to be a way to dislodge the deadlock.
The US, which has been accused of lacking a Syria strategy, seems to be ready to try out Abdullah’s advice. Earlier this month its ambassador in Lebanon said that the US was ready to back a plan to supply energy starved Lebanon with Jordanian electricity and Egyptian natural gas via Syrian territory.
This is the view of one of Syria’s neighbours; Jordan’s King Abdullah. During his July visit to Washington, the king told CNN that the Assad regime is staying. He called on the US and the EU to form a task force that would initiate dialogue with Damascus. The aim, he said, is to change the behaviour of the regime.
The US, which has been accused of lacking a Syria strategy, seems to be ready to try out Abdullah’s advice. Earlier this month its ambassador in Lebanon said that the US was ready to back a plan to supply energy starved Lebanon with Jordanian electricity and Egyptian natural gas via Syrian territory.
Almost a week later a high level Lebanese delegation visited Damascus to discuss the US proposal. This was the first public meeting at a senior level between Lebanon and Syria since 2011. Syria welcomed the proposal and expressed readiness to help its neighbour resolve its energy crisis.
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The US initiative was groundbreaking to say the least. Here was the Biden administration and Syria working together to help Lebanon deal with its energy problem by getting Egypt and Jordan to work together with the Syrians. For the US the immediate aim was to derail a Hezbollah attempt to increase Lebanon’s dependence on Tehran, which is said to be ready to supply Beirut with fuel oil.
Jordan was quick to issue invitations to the energy ministers of Egypt, Syria and Lebanon to come to Amman on Wednesday to discuss ways to facilitate the project. The move constituted a diplomatic breakthrough for the Syrians who had been kept out of the Arab fold for the last ten years. This was a step towards normalisation, if nothing else.
The project could take years to implement and would need the US to approve World Bank intervention to finance the rehabilitation of Syria’s electric and gas pipeline infrastructures. But it could signal a thaw in US-Syrian ties and the beginning of political re-engagement between the two. For this to succeed, Assad must be ready to respond with a fresh initiative aimed at giving a political process a chance to succeed. He must do this on two fronts; distance itself from Iran and express readiness to change its behaviour.
Nothing is risk free and Assad must look beyond the immediate political gains and consider the long-term welfare of his wounded nation.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
