Hakimullah killing a setback to peace bid

Pakistan’s dilemma over peace talks with the Taliban following the death of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) chief Hakimullah Mehsud by a US-led drone attack in North Waziristan will surely exacerbate in the coming weeks.

On the one hand, the TTP chief, responsible for the myriad terror attacks on Pakistani soil, has been eliminated, not by national counter-terrorism forces but by a US predator aircraft, the dreaded Drone and the ‘violator of sovereignty’, the Pakistani leaders often vent their ire at. And, on the other hand he is killed on Friday, soon after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s startling disclosure of talks with the Pakistani Taliban in London. The same drone strike was condemned as per routine by the Foreign Office, an exercise they should now give up, given the farcical juggling of words that have to be undertaken on a strike too many.

However, given that peace talks had been announced and a government delegation was supposed to head to Miranshah to initiate the process, some critical questions pertaining opposition to the peace efforts have cropped up. It has also led to speculation regarding Hakimullah’s stance — was he for or against the peace talks? In either case it could have been elements within the TTP that may have been against Hakimullah’s supposed shift in stance in retreating from a hardline position or the establishment that wanted him out to ease the process and thus leaked information on his whereabouts. Or, as some politicians have warned it may well have been the Americans themselves who are wary of Pakistan’s peace efforts with the Taliban, thus ensuring that an attack on the TTP chief would guarantee no such occurrence in the near future.

An important thing to remember is Hakimullah’s staunch support of the Afghan Taliban and masterminding of some debilitating attacks in Afghanistan targeting the international forces. Most notable among these was his brainchild suicide attack, carried out by a Jordanian on the CIA base in Khost province in Afghanistan in 2009 that led to the deaths of at least seven CIA agents. High on the US target list, his assassination is likely to help Pakistan as well, despite the expected reprisal attacks. Though another TTP commander Khan Syed Mehsud, alias Sajna, is tipped to replace Hakimullah — a decision to be made by the TTP within the next few days — but given the slain militant’s influence among Taliban factions, his grasp of the situation and handling of operations, the TTP has no doubt been dealt a blow.

It could also be that Hakimullah’s assassination may not have been a solely US-initiated operation, pointing to the silent coordination and tacit agreement between Washington and Islamabad, despite the latter’s anti-drones rhetoric. Hakimullah’s mentor and former TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud had also met a similar fate undertaken on a request from Pakistan for his targeting of security personnel, hard targets and alleged links with the Indian Intelligence and consequent activities aimed at destabilisation. The Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar’s dismissal of the government’s involvement in this specific operation and spelling out the understanding with Washington that involved no drone strikes on the TTP in Pakistan during the peace talks process is a sign that things may have gone too far this time, even for Islamabad.

What Pakistan should understand is that its recently adopted strong stance on the issue of drones with Washington — at least on the surface of it — is a mockery considering its own compliance in the matter. Islamabad’s consistent refusal to acknowledge any responsibility on its part of the lethal campaign that has killed thousands of civilians besides the few dozen key targets is gallingly hypocritical. It is equally to blame for the blood of those innocents staining the corridors of the higher offices in DC. Exasperated statements regarding US non-cooperation in giving Pakistan drone technology to undertake anti-terrorist operations in its tribal belt are well and good but are Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders so handicapped that they cannot take a stand and refuse to allow these attacks unless an agreement is reached on finding an alternative way of dealing with the terrorists in the border areas.

But this time around, Friday’s drone strike resulting in Hakimullah’s assassination may have also sounded the death knell for the peace talks or at least for now. This so called ‘murder of peace in the region’ is likely to once again ruffle US-Pakistan ties that had barely patched up after a series of upsets over the past few years. Summoning the US Ambassador to ‘register concern’ over the latest drone strike for scuttling the peace talks may well prove futile unless the government decides to stop the passage of Nato supplies once again.

Both sides continue to mistrust each other, a factor that is likely to imperil peace efforts, whether it is with the Afghan Taliban or the indigenous Pakistani groups, especially in view of the deadline for the foreign forces withdrawal from Afghanistan next year.

The only viable way is for Pakistan’s leadership to draw clear boundaries that cannot be crossed by its ally and jeopardise ongoing efforts that are in keeping with its national interests. In turn, Pakistan must also address US and Afghan concerns regarding its half-hearted approach to dealing with militants and take firm action. Lest it be forgotten, past attempts to implement peace agreements have backfired unless they have been accompanied by force and it is vital that security forces, at present located in neighbouring South Waziristan are not withdrawn even if peace talks are to start. A prospect that does not look feasible at present, given the current situation.