The surprisingly big victory for Hassan Rouhani in Iran’s presidential poll gives him an important opportunity to mend relations with its neighbours and the US. Outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad deliberately soured relations in order to reap the political benefit from being seen to challenge the US. The difficulty is that Rouhani will remain as tough as any Iranian leader on insisting on Iran’s full rights to enrich nuclear fuel. He might come from a more pragmatic camp than some of his ultra-conservative opponents in the elections, but he is still firmly within the orthodoxy of the Islamic Revolution.
During the campaign Rouhani spoke of seeking better relations with the US and Saudi Arabia. This is a good start and indicates that at least he is aware that these very poor relationships are a problem, not an opportunity. The solution to the nuclear stand-off revolves around Iran offering complete transparency, but the real challenge will be for both sides to claim victory. Iran will want to humble the US, while America will want to prove that Iran has caved in. This will tax diplomats on both sides.
Nonetheless, a solution is there for the taking if Iran can reassure the international community that there is no threat from its enrichment programme since the US and the international community do not deny that Tehran has the right to a peaceful nuclear programme. And that enrichment is part of that as long as it stops at the point when the fuel is good for reactors generating vital electricity.
Iran’s relations with most Arab states are very poor. They see Iran as seeking to spread its influence by stirring up their Shiite minorities or through the actions of Tehran’s surrogate forces like Hezbollah.
Rouhani will have to reassure the Arab states that he will reverse Ahmadinejad’s policies, which will be tough since most Arabs believe with some reason that the policies came from the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who still has authority over the president.
